RAJOY IS FINISHED, GAME OVER, BYE-BYERajoy will stop leading the spanish government tomorrow. A few days ago, I posted this:
Quote (zarkadon @ 28 May 2018 12:54)
In other spanish news. The decade long trial against a huge corruption case involving the centre-right party PP (Rajoy's party) came to an end last week. Several important memebers of the party (well, formerly important... they were shoved to a side as the trial's investigation progressed) have been convicted with very long prison sentences, and the party as a whole has been declared beneficiary of the scheme and given partial responsibility.
This has led to Pedro Sánchez, the leader of the opposition and the centre-left party PSOE, to file a vote in parliament to kick out Rajoy and take over his position. He will need 176 affirmative votes out of the 350 seats in parliament. He has the backing of his own men (85 seats), the left-to-far-left party UP (71 seats), catalan separatist left win party ERC (9 seats) and basque separatist left-wing party Bildu (2 seats), for a total of 167 seats. He will need the support of either the centrist C's (32 seats) or both the basque nationalist right-wing PNV (5 seats) or the catalan separatist right-wing PDeCat (8 seats), to form a majority. The one seat from the Canarian regionalist centrist party CC is irrelevant, although they said they'll vote no because they don't want to create further turmoil.
PNV and PDeCat say they'd be ok with a change, so long as the new spanish government makes important concessions to the basque regions and Catalonia. C's said they'd only support the proposal if Sánchez promised to immediately call for elections, so that the citizens can decide who is the next president; otherwise they will null-vote, or vote against it (depending on whether separatist PSOE has negotiated concessions to the separatists or not).
This has created a climate of uncertainty and lack of stability... it's really hard to tell what will happen. Elections would be the best way out imo, but Pedro Sánchez (centre-left party PSOE's leader) is not interested in that, as the polls right now don't favour him, but I don't think his party would accept making significant concessions to separatists either. Rajoy is also not interested in there being elections, as he knows for sure that his party will suffer big time after his lack of actions during the catalan issue until the Court ordered him to, and this huge corruption case that has now exploded in his face.
edit: it has just been announced that the parliamentary debate and vote to kick out Rajoy will be held this Thursday and Friday.
Well now the right-wing catalan separatist party PDeCat and the right-wing basque nationalist party have both agreed to kick out Rajoy, giving Pedro Sánchez (centre-left party PSOE's leader) enough votes to take over his seat tomorrow. Rajoy can still resign, stopping the process and leaving Spain without a government until the parliament elects someone, but it doesn't seem likely as the party has announced that he won't do it and will take the "sacking". Regardless of what he does, tomorrow he will stop being president.
Whatever happens tomorrow, uncertainty lies ahead. In the likely scenario where Rajoy doesn't resign and Pedro Sánchez takes over, the new government would only hold 84 of the 350 seats, as Sánchez insists that he won't form a coalition with any other party. The only way he could govern in a stable manner would be with massive appeasement policies towards the catalan and basque nationalists and separatists, which is complicated in the current climate that keeps the catalan crisis at the heart of the debate. It would likely destroy his party in the following elections. Sánchez would likely have to call for elections soon.
If on the other hand Rajoy resigns, there'd be even more uncertainty, as we wouldn't have a government anymore for an undefined period of time... if the parliament can't elect a president, we'd have to wait two years until the next elections, as only a fully empowered president can trigger elections according to our constitution. However, elections are automatically triggered 3 months after a candidate fails a parliamentary vote to be elected president. So this could be a likely outcome.
So yeah, I can see elections coming before the end of the year.
Quote (fender @ 28 May 2018 22:40)
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but that's what he's charged with, the extradition request was not based on 'something something', but explicitly 'rebellion' - and that's also what most of the others who are currently imprisoned are charged with.
to me it looks like you're finally admitting what the german court found: that the evidence for that just isn't really there, you just don't want to say it outright.
so maybe let's stay with what we know and what we don't, so we don't have to resort half-assed backpedals ('i didn't say XY explicitly, i just acted like it's a reasonable charge throughout this whole discussion') or blame the ignorance concerning legal details (the goalposts are not even in the stadium anymore at this point) for not explicitly stating an (obvious) opinion.
oh, and concerning your sources, i'd really appreciate something in english since i don't speak spanish. you could tell me anything (which i honestly don't think you'd do, you probably cherry picked and only present evidence for one side, but i don't think you'd outright lie about what's in there), but i'd rather be able to read it myself since this really interests me.
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https://i.imgur.com/o6gSDl3.pngoh right, no police brutality, that's just 'fake news'. when you're so brainwashed that you dismiss even the most obvious things as 'fake news' just because they don't fit your narrative, you know that you've gone full r... never go full r...
Well, obviously I'm not lying, thanks for at least agreeing on this, but I understand what you mean. I've posted links in English whenever I've found them. In the thread we had specifically about the catalan issue I did so several times. The problem is that international interest on the subject has declined, and there aren't as many news articles about this in English anymore. It's pretty hard to find news in English from sources I know or consider credible... I could post some from "Tabarnia Today" or "Ara.cat", but they are propaganda sites (unionist and separatist respectively) with a very strong bias, which translate articles into English for the sole purpose of selling their story to the rest of the world. I felt like this wasn't the right thing to do, and I rather post stuff from media I know are credible. El País, which is (along with El Mundo and ABC) one of the 3 most reputed newspapers in Spain (obviously they each have their own agenda, like all media, but I mean they have a very long and clean history), has an English version, but it only translates a small fraction of its content, and it's often tl;dr versions, so it's not that great. I'm obviously aware that you (or the vast majority of people here) don't speak spanish, but I figured that it would be better to post those sources and let google translate do the job.
Regarding the last thing I posted, about the EnfoCATs document, I've found this somewhat poorly translated article in english by the catalan separatist media "elnnacional.cat":
https://www.elnacional.cat/en/news/spain-supreme-court-widens-investigation-independence_220434_102.htmlQuote
Enfocats is a document which the Civil Guard found at the house of the general secretary of the Catalan Economy ministry, Josep Maria Jové, during the searches on 20th September. The Civil Guard places a lot of importance on the report because "it reflects the existence of a group of individuals who defined how and when to carry out each of the actions of the [independence] process and, consequently, of the violence and tumult".