Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 31 2020 07:39am)
Looking at raw excess death numbers is iffy anyway.
Due to the lockdowns, there were fewer traffic deaths. There were also fewer deaths due to stress-induced heart attacks. There were more deaths due to domestic violence. There were, or will be, more deaths due to obesity. Mortality might be going down in the years after covid because a lot of the old and sick who didnt have a lot of time left on their clock were already killed prematurely by the virus. There might be more deaths because the financial burden imposed by the lockdowns leads to a worsening of the underfunding in the healthcare system in a couple of years. And so on and on.
A truly comprehensive analysis can probably not be conducted until 3-5 years after the last wave.
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In my opinion, we're quickly moving toward the point where the long-term ramifications of further lockdowns exceed the short-term calamities they are preventing. The current (2nd) lockdowns across Europe are definitely the last ones that have my (already very reserved and tentative) support.
Yes, when the current lockdowns end some time in December, we'll have a couple of calmer weeks. But what happens when case numbers start going up again in January or February? Yet another lockdown which would then be guaranteed to kill off our economies and prosperity for good? No fucking way. Our governments have to finally come up with something different. They already had all summer long to prepare, but they did fuck all and pissed all the time away. We're basically back to square one. If they still have no other approach than lockdowns in Jan/Feb/March, there will be riots.
/rant
You don’t look at just all excess deaths but you look specifically excess heart attacks , strokes , etc.
I do understand your point of lockdowns and I think ideally they aren’t needed if the population is doing the right things - see Asia.
Quote (EndlessSky @ Oct 30 2020 11:14pm)
If you have stage 2 cancer u aren’t dying this year from a missed session, therefore not an excess death right now. Has the potential to be a weak argument going forward, but doesn’t have any ground right now. A small Minority of patients have missed sessions anyway