Quote (Thor123422 @ 4 Nov 2020 07:14)
Pretty reasonable.
It's gonna be close as hell in every state that matters.
We're gonna be looking at another slim win by razor thin margins no matter what happens.
Yes, MI/PA/GA seem to come down to the absolute wire. And like I keep repeating, I also think that AZ will end up being quite close when everything is said and done. I think it tilts toward Biden, but not by much. Likewise, I see WI being a really close win for Biden.
In that case (which is a big if), the story of the election is two-fold: 1.: Trump's strength in Florida and the Rust Belt persists, but WI narrowly slips through his fingers due to their huge covid surge in the weeks before the election. 2.: the suburban revolt causes two Sun Belt states dominated by a single large metro (Phoenix in AZ, Atlanta in GA) to flip.