Quote (Pollster @ Aug 23 2016 04:37pm)
It's interesting, there's actually a bit of variance on what kind of Congress we could get in January, especially relative to how much there should be (given how much gerrymandering the GOP pulled off post-2010).
No matter what, Ryan will be losing allies from blue states (NY/MN/CA/FL especially) who are the only Republicans in years past who could be counted on to raise the debt ceiling, keep the government funded, take a "yes" vote on anything even half-sensible. Even if the GOP can narrowly hold onto their majority the caucus is going to be made up almost entirely of people from blood-red turf of the "House Freedom Caucus" variety, the people who forced Boehner to retire and who shut the government down for no reason. Those people make Ryan miserable. If given the choice between a 1-seat majority and 1-seat minority, he might honestly prefer the minority.
I think after the circus is over and the GOP is a bit more split than it is now, because let's be honest the rank and file not getting in line behind Trump is bound to cause some hurt feelings once he gets pummeled in a landslide, not even 5-7 would be a safe majority. I know as Ryan I wouldn't feel safe with even a 6 seat majority, when we've already seen that many or more from his party come out for HRC in this cycle.
I personally think Ryan's looking for a way to make his exit as speaker, potentially even from congress, without tanking the rest of his career. With Walker likely losing his reelection, and a Democrat following up by taking all of Walker's union reforms off the books, Ryan's could walk into a sweetspot in the following election. Walker's dirt will be off the books, and with the economy coming up and the Dem future governor focused solely on keeping pace with Minnesota job numbers, he's ride a wave so massive into office. And he could play the old "that was my predecessor's reform at work, not mine" game any time something goes wrong.
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