Quote (thesnipa @ 7 Oct 2020 17:17)
Wanna put 500 fg straight up on Arizona going blue this year?
im game.
also down for another 500 on wisconsin. 500 on texas with 300 from you for some odds.
and a my 1k fg, your 100 fg parlay on Wi, ohio, michigan, and PA all voting blue.
No thanks. Generally not interested in gambling fg on the election.
For the record: I do think that there is some hidden Trump vote and that he will overperform his polls in the end. I just dont think that it's gonna be enough.
If I had to make an educated guess, I would say the odds for winning the election in Arizona imho are 65:35 in Biden's favor, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania imho are 60:40 Biden, Florida and North Carolina 67:33 Trump, Texas 85:15 Trump. (Texas will only go blue if Trump really falls apart between now and election day.)
If the election was held today, I would say 80:20 Biden in AZ, 70:30 Biden in WI and PA, 60:40 Trump in FL and NC, and 75:25 Trump in TX.