The split in the polls that I'm talking about is not between nationwide and battleground polls, it's between different pollsters. Some are systematically better for Trump than others. For example, he's always doing comparatively well in HarrisX, IBD and Emerson polls, national and state. By contrast, his numbers in Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena and Fox News polls are always awful. And it's been like that the entire race. My personal theory is that subtle methodological differences between the pollsters happen to have a large impact on how much bias is introduced into the poll by differential non-response.

you're right of course, its due to methodology.

but both also make trumps chances look worse than they are. trump isn't a poll winning potus, even in a year with no covid and w/e.

people en masse, some silent many vocal, still support him and will vote for him. i live in a purple state and i think he'll win here.

when i hear media stories calling texas purple i laugh. not yet.

Agreed, but then again... even if his better polls are ultimately the ones which were right, then he's still losing this election by an Obama-08-like margin nationally (around 7%), and the battlegrounds by a safe 3-4%.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 7 2020 07:26am

im saying even his optimistic polls are still underselling his support. unless we buy the concept of a "silent biden vote" at face value.

im in a battleground area and trump support is everywhere. i literally see 50-75% of households with trump signs in their yards around me. so that's not just 50-75% of people, its 50-75% of the people voting for trump and only 50% voter turnout, if u get what i mean. cities will still vote for biden, but the country is voting for trump, at a higher rate if the population. density in cities with 50% turnout can still be drowened out by 75% turnout in rural areas. my state isnt that populated even with madison/milwaukee.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Oct 7 2020 07:42am

I get your argument, I just think you're a bit of in a bubble. Wisconsin is a very white, quite rural and right-trending state, and you're living in a more "trumpy" part of that state. I'm sceptical that we can deduce all that much from the trends in Wiscon (or the Upper Midwest in general) about what's gonna happen in urbanizing, diversifying and Trump-wary states like Texas or Arizona.

Wisc voted for the (R) Pres candidate (Trump in 2016, hardly a traditional republican himself) one time since 1984. if he wins it again sure its a trend, but i dont think we can say it is a trend yet.

snipa’s analysis makes sense and it’s always all about turnout

This post was edited by excellence on Oct 7 2020 08:12am

I do indeed live in a bubble, but that is one of just a few bubbles that decide every presidential election. it could be that wisconsin bucks a trend of purple states, but given where i see the trump supports (manufacturing sectors) i think PA, Ohio, Michigan, etc will all follow along.

i see those midwest states as breaking for trump wholesale, it will rest on places like Florida, Virginia, etc to vote differently.

i dont think arizona or texas have a chance in hell of voting blue this year. 10 years from now maybe, but not in 2020.

Wisconsin has often times been very close in presidential election, even if it ended up going to the Democrats in the end. It has been increasingly to the right of the nation as a whole in recent years. In terms of its demographics and its rural structure, it contains a lot of groups which are right-trending, and comparatively few which are left-trending. Its 2018 gubernatorial contest was a tossup despite the lopsided D+8.6 national environment. Trump might have turned off too many seniors and moderates with his antics and his blunders, so he might well lose the state this year, but in the medium-term future, the state will go red.



I think it's quite delusional to say that Arizona has "no chance in hell" of going blue this year. I would actually say it's more likely than not to go for Biden. There are reasons to expect some degree of a hidden Trump vote, so I'm perfectly fine with someone still seeing Trump as the favorite in AZ in spite of Biden's polling lead. But giving Biden no chance in hell... that's ridiculous, sry.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 7 2020 08:49am

while the signs of a trend are there i would say it could take a couple elections before we say for sure. and ah yes the classic “i want the product that guy is selling, but because i dont like his sales pitch im going with the other guy who is selling a product i dont want and will harm me”

speaking of older voters, love how biden is running “trump will kill social security in 3 years” ads when a: it is spending done by the govt in prior 40 years before Trump was elected that really whittled away at social security and b: biden is the one who was a yes in not one but two votes to increase the tax frequency on ssi distributions (which were already taxes to begin with, and its not like they grew because our mindless oblivion npc government for decades sloshed it in the general fund rather than putting it in index funds)

Wanna put 500 fg straight up on Arizona going blue this year?

im game.

also down for another 500 on wisconsin. 500 on texas with 300 from you for some odds.

and a my 1k fg, your 100 fg parlay on Wi, ohio, michigan, and PA all voting blue.