A good analysis of how stupid it was for Trump to pull out of the talks about a new stimulus package:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-economy-was-trumps-one-remaining-advantage-now-he-might-have-blown-it/

WSB is not going to be happy

WSB?

Wall street bets, the subreddit.

Would be nice to get my tax money back aka stimulus... Poor welfare Trump needs it more though I guess.

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Oct 7 2020 06:25am

My guess is they'll get something passed.

He's been in the propaganda bubble so long I think he's completely lost his political instincts. He ends the negotiations and then says(yet again) he'll declassify Russia docs. As if that's going to win over suburban women to his side this late in the game. Biden's steady(or rising) in the polls and Trump is flailing. Fun to watch.

Stonks always go up

im still uneasy but its fun to see the polls shift for 2 reasons:

1. its not HRC just ahead by a mile the whole time, its actually dynamic. when one is just listed as ahead and there's little change (outside of the Comey release) its boring and also was wrong.

2. the "silent Trump voter" is no longer nearly as in play. Trump voters are anything but silent in far larger numbers than 2016 imo.

but time will tell, i am still predicting he wins wisconsins regardless of what Sauk County does.

Yes, that's my impression too. He had great instincts in 2016, but ever since the 2018 midterms, he just seems lost. Like that National Review article which you posted the other day was saying: Trump The Populist is completely missing from the 2020 race.



The silent Trump voter argument is bullshit, but differential non-response might very well be a thing this year, with Trump-leaning constituencies being less inclined to answer the phone or participate in a poll. This might explain the still evident split in the polls, with one bunch of them showing the race as Biden+(5-6), and Trump with a fighting chance in the EC, while the other bunch of polls is showing a double digit blowout.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 7 2020 06:55am

nationwide polls and EC focussed polls will always show a big gap thanks to big city pockets of Blue voters and how polls are conducted.

i still think when ive read analysis of the purple counties of america's heartland that Trump will win, because Biden's lead there isnt enough to cover what silent trump voters and trump voters the polls miss. but id be happy to be wrong. i may be jaded by being surrounded by too many stubborn trump voters incapable of admitting he's ever done anything wrong.