Quote (ferdia @ Aug 2 2022 08:19pm)
I really dont understand the chinese strategy re: Taiwan.
on the one hand the lesson from ukraine is, dont get into a shooting war as you will be ostrasized by the West, and this will hurt. Yet, on the other hand the ever increased chinese incursions into contested? airspace and volume of planes involved, suggests a ramping up. At the very least this trend will increase after Nancy visits the region. From a long term strategic stand point it makes no sense whatsoever for china to invade now. they are better off slowly cooking taiwan (i.e. olive branch, trade ties, play nice, lets be friends). having friendly neighbours to my mind is far more appealing then hating each other/creating global animosity/distrust regardless of right or wrong).
I think taiwan should've played both sides, but now that is in the past.
China is gonna start preparing an invasion, in 1-3? years everything will be in place. If they actually act on it boils down to if relations continue in the same path or not. China can't just pull out an invasion today you realise, we don't actually know what the chinese stratergy is because it will take atleast some time to be prepared and even longer to potentially materalize.
The taiwanese have blundered majorly. The US won't give them more than they already have got, and the chinese can hurt them far more than they have done so far which is (nothing at all).
This is just my takes, i might be a bit off, i gotta think about it a bit longer. The chinese are being pushed into a corner and im not sure what options they have in that case. It isn't like they can just ignore taiwan, but at the same time their worldwide ambitions shouldn't be spoiled for the sake of a small relatively irrelevant country
This post was edited by ownyaah on Aug 2 2022 12:32pm