Quote (MadMan87 @ 28 Feb 2022 08:29)

China has pretty much said it is unacceptable already I thought with them demanding both sides “Search for peace and stop fighting.).

Quote (Vastet @ Feb 28 2022 12:25pm)

If China actually said it was unacceptable then the war would be over. Telling ALL sides to find diplomatic solutions is a neutral position at most.

Quote (MadMan87 @ 28 Feb 2022 22:39)

They started trying to do peace talks as soon as it was reported. First day resulted in nothing but they plan to talk again.

Quote (MadMan87 @ 27 Feb 2022 16:27)

But see I respect that(not that you need the respect of an idiot on a forum). The world is a scary place and shit is becoming unpredictable at times.

Quote (Vastet @ Feb 27 2022 04:49pm)

I predicted the annexation of Crimea and I predicted the war on Ukraine. But I'm unable to make predictions on what happens next. Shit is too messy now. Russia very much has a right to defend itself but we are now at a point where defence of Russia involves a lot more than just simple military pieces on the board. The inaction of China speaks volumes on how far China is willing to go.

If I was forced to make a prediction at gun point I would have to say that Russia will liberate Donbass and Lugansk, and keep Crimea. But it will not topple the government of Ukraine. And there's a non-zero chance the remainder of Ukraine will be fast-tracked into NATO, as well as Sweden and Finland. Overall Russia will be worse off than it was, but it will gain the security buffer it desires to have. Though the value of that buffer is questionable.

This largely depends on how willing the EU and NATO are to relieve sanctions if Russia satisfies itself with the above, as well as the China wildcard. If there is no willingness in the West to de-escalate, then Russia will likely take the entire country and install a puppet government. It really has nothing else to lose and while there isn't much to gain there is some gain to be had. Unless China tells them straight up that is unacceptable, but unless something drastic happens I don't think China will involve itself.

Quote (bogie160 @ Feb 28 2022 10:22pm)

When a government is solidly in place, and has a security state that is operational, it's relatively easy to maintain control of a country in the face of civil discontent, at least as long as you're willing to crack down effectively on opposition.

It's much harder to maintain control over a hostile, occupied state, especially when you aren't willing to employ the sort of brutal tactics that have been proven to engineer compliance. Occupying a nation of ~30+ million people is not easy, as the United States learned in Iraq. Putin's armed forces are not nearly as competent as those of the United States, nor does he have nearly the wealth or resources. The only hope for Russia was that Ukrainian resistance would quickly crumble and the facade of Ukrainian nationalism would dissipate. It's looking increasingly unlikely that that's the case.

Quote (MadMan87 @ 26 Feb 2022 13:42)

Do any of you who said the Russian Invasion was paranoia or propaganda feel foolish yet? Or is there still narcissistic ego shielding you from admittance of naivety?

Quote (bogie160 @ 28 Feb 2022 23:22)

When a government is solidly in place, and has a security state that is operational, it's relatively easy to maintain control of a country in the face of civil discontent, at least as long as you're willing to crack down effectively on opposition.

It's much harder to maintain control over a hostile, occupied state, especially when you aren't willing to employ the sort of brutal tactics that have been proven to engineer compliance. Occupying a nation of ~30+ million people is not easy, as the United States learned in Iraq. Putin's armed forces are not nearly as competent as those of the United States, nor does he have nearly the wealth or resources. The only hope for Russia was that Ukrainian resistance would quickly crumble and the facade of Ukrainian nationalism would dissipate. It's looking increasingly unlikely that that's the case.

Quote (Santara @ Feb 26 2022 05:29pm)

It was their JOB to say those things. Not because they believed them, but because they're complicit in the invasion.

Quote (MadMan87 @ Feb 26 2022 01:42pm)

Do any of you who said the Russian Invasion was paranoia or propaganda feel foolish yet? Or is there still narcissistic ego shielding you from admittance of naivety?

Quote (Cascadian @ Mar 1 2022 12:42am)

I feel foolish just by reading their posts :(