Quote (thundercock @ 19 Jul 2020 20:04)
At the moment, white, but they are a rapidly declining demographic. In addition, there's no such thing as the "white vote" or "Hispanic vote" like there is with the "black vote." Blacks really do vote in unison (something like 85%+). Unfortunately, Hispanics are trending towards "voting in unison" which is incredibly dangerous for the GOP.
Both Romney and Trump had pathetic shares of the Hispanic vote compared to GWB. Of Latinos, 32% identify as CONSERVATIVE, 28% identify as liberal, and 36% identify as moderate (2016 data). The GOP is REALLY dropping the ball on this demographic. Yes, their wants and needs are diverse and often contradictory depending on if you are speaking with Guatemalans or Puerto Ricans. However, there's no reason why the GOP couldn't create a MAJORITY COALITION of Hispanics.
I'm not convinced that you can grab a similar percentage of the "white vote" given that white women and white men vote quite differently. At the moment, Biden is obliterating Trump because his coalition is really strong. The reason? Suburbanites.
I've said it before, but given the state of the American education system and the disdain towards public sector unions, the correct path forward would be for the GOP to become the party of performance and outcomes when it comes to education. There's nothing more important to suburbanites than a quality education for their children. Alas, the proof is in the pudding and the GOP doesn't give a fuck about outcomes.
Whites are a rapidly declining demographic because of political decisions made in the past and present. The difference in birthrates isnt that dramatic, the decline in the white population share is almost exclusively driven by immigration which has happened to be largely non-white in recent decades. If all immigration was stopped right now, the different age structures would mean that demographic change would continue for quite some years, but it would come to a halt at roughly 50% whites.
So no, an ever diversifying country is not inevitable fate, it's a conscious decision by the country's leadership. The Trump administration has in fact put forward several plans aimed at addressing this trend: they suggest to eliminate birthright citizenship (which translates illegal immigration into votes for Democrats with a delay of one generation) and to massively reduce chain migration, while at the same time strengthening merit-based immigration.
I agree that latinos are not a lost cause to Republicans the way blacks are, and that they should try to reach out to them without compromising on their core principles. This is possible, one does not need to adopt open borders policies to be able to appeal to them. Sure, if you position yourself against illegal immigration, you're gonna alienate some hispanics, but not all of them as long as you do it without vilifying the entire ethnicity. (This is the area where Trump failed in his messaging.)
GWB did comparatively well with hispanics in 2004, but he really went out of his way to appeal to them as much as he possibly could, and he still lost them by around 20%. Furthermore, it must be noted that if you extrapolated the race-based margins of the 2004 race on the 2016 demographics, the Republican candidate would have lost the popular vote and the electoral college.
Biden's coalition isnt strong, the anti-trump coalition is. These college-educated white suburbanites who benefit from the current status quo are the ones who are turning against Trump/the GOP the hardest. In the light of the ongoing political macro-realignment that is taking place all across the Western world, with the dominant political cleavage increasingly being along an "open-closed" scale rather than the traditional "left-right" scale (see also
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open%E2%80%93closed_political_spectrum ), it seems unrealistic to me that the GOP could reverse or stop this trend. Those college-educated, cosmopolitan suburbanites are a lost cause for the GOP. It is important to shore up support among other parts of suburbia though, which is another field where the Trump GOP has failed.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 19 2020 01:05pm