I have no appetite for that type of "forum kid" nonsense. If people aren't interested in a topic then it's quite simple: don't post in it. I'm not really sure why someone that's allegedly not interested in a subject would make several posts in a topic stating their disinterest unless they're starved for attention.

This post was edited by JayKwik on Mar 20 2013 12:04pm

This

2014 FL GOV
Wow, Quinnipiac shadowed PPP and polled Florida as well. They found Charlie Crist leading Florida Governor Rick Scott 50%-34% in a hypothetical matchup, and 2010 candidate Alex Sink leads Scott 45%-34%. Sink's personal favorability is still a mystery, currently sitting at 29%-12% with 58% undecided. Scott's job approval is at 36%-49%, virtually unchanged from his 36%-45% rating in December. His personal favorability sits at 33%-46% and Crist remains popular with a favorability of 49%-30%. Quinnipiac also puts Rick Scott comfortably ahead in a hypothetical Republican primary race, but they have that Adam Putman is actually Scott's top challenger if he decided to hop into the race. Democratic Senator Bill Nelson's job approval remains at 49%-28% after his comfortable reelection in November, and Republican Senator Marco Rubio's job approval is at 48%-33%. Voters are still unhappy with the work done by the Republican-controlled state legislature, disapproving 52%-25%.

Looks like Qunnipiac and PPP think there's something to the fact that Crist has meeting with Democratic groups and have been testing the water for him with some upfront polling.

It's Surfpunk that isn't interest in the topic. I'm interested insofar as the concept of using polling to govern is a shitty concept, but do not deny at all that policy by polling gets people elected. Shit just gets worse is all.

Someone's jimmies be rustled.

This post was edited by Surfpunk on Mar 20 2013 04:08pm

2016 Presidential
Quinnipiac's polling of Florida provided a few other interesting insights. Hillary Clinton had strong numbers in this state as in many others that have been polled recently, her favorability remaining sky high at 62%-33%. Jeb Bush retains a personal favorability of 50%-35% six years after leaving office. Marco Rubio's favorability sits at 41%-34%, generally in line with other polls. Clinton holds huge leads over both in hypothetical 2016 matchups, besting Bush 51%-40% and Rubio 52%-41%. The RNC will be very concerned with these numbers knowing they can't win the presidency without Florida, and better gear up their Florida operation soon in a similar way to Obama and the DNC's management of Ohio in the years leading up to the 2012 election. Obama's job approval sit at 50%-45% in the state as of now.

Marco Rubio's numbers are a little concerning if he's seriously considering a presidential run. His support from Latino voters is middling (39%-34%), and his favorability is down from its all-time high (May 2012). The GOP's attempt to thrust Rubio into the spotlight has not paid off as of yet, as his personal approval has remained the same since before his SOTU response but his disapproval has more than doubled. His job approval is a little higher than his favorability though. Jeb Bush doesn't favor very well either. His favorability with women is 50% (compared to Rubio's 38%) and 27% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him (compared to Rubio's 12%), but the fact that he was a two-term governor that left office quite a few years ago should be giving him a great favorability bump that he's just not getting. He has a very low ceiling and if he did jump back into the fray his numbers might even end up underwater. 33% want Bush to run vs. 51% think he should sit out. 37% want Rubio to run vs. 53% thinks he shouldn't. When asked who they support in a 2016 Democratic primary Clinton leads the way (62%) while Biden (12%), Cuomo (5%), and Warren (3%) lag way behind. Jeb Bush (30%) leads the way in a crowded GOP primary field with Marco Rubio (29%) close behind. Rand Paul clocks in at 11%, Huckabee somehow still gets 9% support, and Chris Christie checks in at 8%. Paul Ryan has dropped to 4%. In a primary battle between just Bush and Rubio, 49% prefer Rubio to 36% who prefer Bush.

There was also extensive polling on gun violence and which proposals Floridians support. They support banning assault weapons (56%-41%), banning high-capacity magazines (53%-43%), placing armed police officers in schools (59%-36%), and having stricter gun laws in general (51%-44%). They still do support the state's controversial "stand your ground" law despite a 7-point swing towards stricter laws that's occurred over the last year.

2014 SD Senate
Some hypothetical matchups in the rarely-polled state of South Dakota, where incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Johnson has still not declared whether he will retire or seek reelection. He trails both SDAL representative Kristi Noem (45%-49%) and former popular Governor Mike Rounds (41%-52%). Rounds has declared for the race already whereas Noem has been quiet, but if she has any desire for advancement she might jump into the primary knowing the state's other Senate seat is held by John Thune. Tim Johnson's job approval rating is not terrible itself (44%-45%) but both challengers have very good favorability numbers, Rounds at 51%-34% and Noem at 49%-42%. The Democrats (and most observers) are predicting a Johnson retirement which could actually improve the party's chances of holding the seat. Currently there are two names being floated as possible Democratic nominees, one is Brendan Johnson, the Senator's son and current U.S. Attorney for the state, and the other is popular former SDAL representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Democrats much prefer SHS and she runs stronger in the hypothetical matchups against Noem and Rounds. She leads Noem 48%-47% and only trails Rounds 44%-49%.



It's not "using polling to govern," it's governing in accordance with the wills of the electorate. This is the premise of our system of governance, where people make the decisions through representative government. There isn't a legitimate alternative way to govern in our system. The idea that representatives "should just do the right thing" sounds like an idea that would normally be pitched by an 8-year old quite frankly, it just isn't a sensible proposal. Neither is relying on "logical support for an issue," and neither is arbitrarily determining a policy is "good" or "bad" when ignoring the actual qualifiers: evidenced-based analysis and/or the actual opinion of the electorate. I think in order to govern legitimately, and intelligently, the electorate must determine what they want from government and government must determine the best way to uphold their wishes. Whether the demand is "cut my taxes" or "get me a job" there's no shortage of qualitative research to guide representatives on the best way to accomplish those things and they are expected to produce the results or face the consequences.



Again, it's simple: no one cares if you're interested in this thread or not. I didn't make this thread to interest you, I made it because people asked me to. If you aren't interested then you simply do not need to post here. Thanks.

This post was edited by JayKwik on Mar 22 2013 12:54pm