Quote (Goomshill @ 19 Jul 2024 04:49)
Maybe the other conventional wisdom I should have payed attention to is that nobody does a circular firing squad quite like the democrats
Multiple presidents have won elections even as far down in the polls as Biden is now, at this point. Bush daddy the obvious one after Dukakis cordially invited Willie Horton to rape his wife to death. And pragmatically, nobody in the democratic mainstream has any chance of beating Trump at current polling numbers, least of all Harris, and they'll obviously lose a huge chunk of the black vote by passing over Harris. Anyone taking over for Biden would just be feeding themselves into a woodchipper, so it begs the question of whats the bloody point of all this? And that point should be obvious, rats on a sinking ship with no way to escape are just running amok and flailing.
Democrats could get their shit together, keep Biden on the ticket, and either pray something happens in the next few months to turn around the election, drum up some october surprise, or just see if Trump's wave crests early and they can recoup some ground organically. They have multiple pathways to victory. Gambling that they can push a new 3rd candidate (who, Dean fucking Philips? lmao) and spend the next few months trying to introduce him to a disinterested country, is not a pathway to victory.
Multiple presidents have been as far down in the polls as Biden and turned it around - but they generally did so by pivoting on their message and/or by campaigning vigorously. Biden can't do either of that. He's too old and senile to out-campaign or out-smart the Trump campaign, and he's coming off of four years in office, he can't credibly promise an entirely new, different policy direction. His only hope is for an external event or a huge, unforced error by the Trump campaign to bail him out. And at this point, Biden is so cooked that he might not even be able to exploit a Trump blunder.
Which is why it would imho make sense for Harris to take over. Yes, she's awful, yes, she will also lose to Trump. But she at least has a pulse and a functioning brain. She can at least campaign hard and try to mitigate the Dem losses, perhaps save some downballot races. She can also more credibly promise a policy course correction of sorts. And if Trump does give her an opening by making a huge unforced error, she is better positioned to exploit it. Moreover, it's blatantly obvious to anybody who's paying ANY attention that a vote for Biden effectively means a vote for president Harris anyway, so why not end the charade and make it official?
The only argument against running with her is that she will most likely be thrown into an unwinnable race - but why should that matter to Democrats? It's not like she will be future presidential material anyway. And from her own perspective, taking the 10-15% chance she will have in 2024 is presumably still higher than her chance of becoming the nominee in an open race in 2028 and then winning that year's general election. So running now is still her best shot at the presidency.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 19 2024 04:49pm