Must have misunderstood you then. You were comparing the current American reality with a scenario with a hard initial shutdown and then a more far-reaching return to normalcy, and then listed things which suck in the current status quo. I assumed this was meant to imply that items from this list would not be necessary in your alternative scenario.

Sorry about your uncle though, didnt know that.




1k cases in a state with a pop of 5.8m?! What the actual fuck?



Yes.



Yes, yes it is. And you're still missing the point: this virus is a festering wound for every country and society, not just for those who failed to shut down hard and quick enough.

Many countries who were stringent and brought their cases way down are currently struggling with this second wave just as much as those who half-assed it. I gave you three examples. Meanwhile, others who didnt lock down, like Poland or Sweden, still have their numbers under control. And in countries which took a middle-of-the-road approach like Germany, Netherlands or Portugal, the results also vary, with cases creeping up slowly while still seeming under control in GER and POR, as opposed to exploding case numbers in NL.




This theory that starting with low numbers in the summer (as a result of stringent covid measures during the initial wave) would prevent or alleviate the second wave during fall just isnt supported by the numbers.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 24 2020 09:01am

those are the new cases per day, and our state is not testing most people and instead doing 14 day quarantines unless symptoms worsen.

Germany had 200-500 cases per day from late may to early august, during that same time my state had 500-800 per day, with limited testing.

so im not sure what math you're talking about. France during the same time had 300-1k cases per day in waves.

my state is on par with France or Germany as a country. im used to us outdrinking you kraughts, just not this.

France has slightly more than 10 times the population of WI, and 10-12k daily cases right now, while you sit at 1k. So at least at face value, the severity of the current waves are comparable. Sloppy testing leading to a higher dark figure in WI is a possibility though, I'll give you that.

The other point I was making is about low starting numbers preventing or mitigating a second wave. And this point doesnt add up when we look at the empirical evidence. Spain, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all had comparable numbers in early summer. Spain, France and NL have seen a huge second wave in recent weeks, Germany has very slowly creeping up numbers at a still comfortable level, and Italy is holding almost entirely steady. This picture of initial numbers not being too correlated with a second wave is confrimed even further when we also include the other, smaller European countries as well as other industrialized countries (Israel, Canada, Japan, Australia, etc.)

a point that is going clear over your head when comparing Europe to US. Not only is Europe doing better, but they had much less time to react than us. We had weeks longer to react and those weeks when you’re talking about the degree numbers. We had the advantages of time and hindsight. Furthermore you can compare the spikes in regards to number of new cases per million and see that they are still at different playing grounds. Just like the fail Australia comparison. Are you also blaming NY for having the highest mortality rate in this country and claiming they did a worse job than Fl based on this metric? I am not suggesting you would, but you’re cherry picking examples while simultaneously ignoring several major contributing factors. Like trying to compare apples to donuts. Wait until after winter and you can further compare the degree of the spikes and realize who the donut is. The plateau we have reached as a country should be extremely alarming

If we go by the death rates, the UK is comparable, and places like Belgium and Spain are worse. Italy and Sweden are comparable.

Places like France may be lagging behind, but their recent spikes are significantly higher than in the United States. To what extent they merely pushed the problem off remains to be seen.

At the end of the day, as far as Western societies go, Sweden may have had the right of it.

Not going by deathrates lol

Europe is a medically inferior continent, they are going to be worse off and were using retarded hydroxychloroquine/azithro combination up til summer. I know for a fact they were in England until later July. Italy literally ran out of oxygen at hospitals. Germany is the only country worth its weight from a medical standpoint in the continent. Even then, with the time lapse it’s difficult to compare these regions and this is why this comparison is erroneous.

The US compared to asia and Canada are much fairer comparisons, and actually skewed in favor of the US/Canada given the population density they have to deal with.

If we go by deaths per 1m, then Spain, Belgium, Italy and the UK are already worse than Sweden, but those were the epicenters of the pandemic in Europe. Sweden might be able to leave France behind in the end, but the next on the list is the Netherlands with a large gap, so it looks as if Sweden will still end up with one of the worst mortality rates in Europe. All neighboring Scandinavic countries are doing far better by this metric, just like Germany, Poland, Portugal, Greece, Austria, and most of Eastern Europe.

The Swedish strategy might be the best one if pulled off perfectly, but it's a high risk strategy, every mistake you make with it is punished badly - and that's what happened in Sweden when they failed to properly protect the elderly in the beginning. They paid for this mistake with a high and unnecessary death toll.

Also, let's not forget that the Swedish model crucially relies on a disciplined, responsible, solidary populace who eagerly plays along with what its government asks from it. Doesnt really sound like a feasible approach for the U.S.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 24 2020 10:00am

At the end of the day, though, deaths are what people care about.

Canada is an interesting case, because case counts have been rising rapidly. We're going to have to let these things play out in order to see what the right decisions were in the long-run.

East Asia has handled the situation very well, whether lax (Japan) or very strict (S.Korea), perhaps they're just cleaner societies.

Cleaner, more responsible, early mitigation policy, able to actually perform contact tracing

I’m not honestly familiar with what Canada is doing. But the US should be rightfully compared to SK and not Italy /France lmao

This post was edited by Bazi on Sep 24 2020 10:03am

Bold explains a huge percentage of the death toll in the United States.

I think the ideal solution would have been to lock away the elderly and go about our normal day to day. That won't work in Mediterranean countries where the elderly actively live in multigenerational households, but it sounds like a good fit for the United States.

I don't think that lockdowns work in countries that aren't used to the sort of behavior required to achieve good results. Europe has struggled, East Asia seems to be fine.



I don't think it's fair to explain away European struggles as a function of their terrible health-care, and not explain away American struggles as a function of our cultural obsession with individual rights.

What works in South Korea may not work in the United States.

This post was edited by bogie160 on Sep 24 2020 10:05am