Indiana stage 5

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/09/23/indiana-move-stage-5-coronavirus-reopening/3506866001/

it makes me laugh that the cost of shutting down the entire country for 3 weeks was seen as laughable to the right, and instead we'll be running on 75% instead for a year or more which costs far more and will shut down restaurants nationwide, whereas many could have withstood a 3 week break without closing.

the only person in america who loves a 12 month lockdown is Jeff Bezos.

stfu you troll, its a cold common cold.
stop being a snowflake if grandma dies it's worth it to keep the economy going.
D hoax to control me by forcing me to wear a mask
COMMUNIST!!!

...

Lol

ofc it mutates, as people have been saying since the beginning. Which is why a vaccine is incredibly difficult and not entirely realistic to have a largely effective one

It will eventually become one of the many benign seasonal respiratory viruses, the point is we have to get there

If it was controlled initially, it wouldn’t have the prevalence it currently has and then you really have a good chance to contain, but this conversation is no longer applicable anymore. All fauci et al can do is plead but Murica be murica

This post was edited by Bazi on Sep 23 2020 01:49pm

Specialist made an article on the low mutation rate of the virus: basically the final, optimal, form was already reached when the contagion started.
The mutations we have are small. There's only 1 risk: this pandemic could be a start for a new kind of bacteriological war, where only countries with the best discipline could win, economically.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Sep 23 2020 02:12pm

"Let's get over with it, do a really tough 3-4 week shutdown, eradicate the virus and then we can open everything back up to 100%, drop any precautions and continue life like before" was never a realistic option. Not in a country with some 10000 miles of land borders and all sorts of international travel and trade. Even Australia failed with this approach, the virus got out of hand again and the state of Victoria (Melbourne) has now been in a second (and super tough) lockdown which already lasts for more than 3 months and is slated to last at least one more, cratering the state GDP so badly that it drags the entire Australian GDP down with it.

The only country that might be successful with a strategy of total suppression in the end is New Zealand, and even they had a second outbreak this summer which necessitated another lockdown in their largest metro Auckland. If something like this happens for a third time, their strategy will fall apart too, so even in the case of NZ, the verdict is still out.

My point is that the country running on less than 100% for the year or so that it will take to develop a vaccine was always inevitable - a strategy of total suppression was bound to fail in places like the USA or Europe. The best we could have hoped for was to handle the pandemic like South Korea or Japan.








"May" have made the virus "more" contagious... this really needs some quantification. How certain are they that this type of mutation happened, and how much more contagious has it become?
If it's something like "there's a 60% chance the virus did mutate to become 3-6% more contagious", that would be a nothing burger. On the other hand, "there's a 95% chance that he virus mutated to become at least twice as contagious" would be the beginning of the apocalypse...

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 23 2020 02:45pm

A lot of weird in this post

The NZ comparison that “we don’t know how they will end up be” is not a valid argument. There economy required less stimulus, their morbidity and mortality are on completely different levels. The only argument is that there country is less population dense. But you say words like “out of hand” (in reference to Australia) somehow implying that there scenario is comparable to ours... make no mistake America’s level of mismanagement is novel, maybe after a year Brazil or India might be on par but not anytime soon.

Which goes into Asia/Europe argument

U brought up SK and Japan, as best case examples for the US. Indeed they could have been comparable, we are the worlds richest country after all. South Korea has basically confirmed they are one of the worlds most responsible societies. In terms of leadership and personal responsibility. Both US and SK had their first confirmed cases around similar times, the trajectories of each society went in opposite directions after that. Why is this? Does anyone truly believe it is because of number of tests being run? Only fb warriors like my wife’s trash family parrot this nonsense still. They implemented hard mitigation measures early, aka rampant testing early. Not 3 months later when it had spread to every city in the country. This was coupled with societal change and everyone adapting accordingly. Masks, hand sanitizers, restricting unnecessary travel. Idiocracy might take place in 2500 but Florida is probably a decade away

Nobody is saying this should have been a rosy 45 day affair and then business as usual. It was always going to be a marathon, especially in a country like this. Just as it is in the superior Asian countries. Which is why mitigating measures were always going to be paramount. Spikes are natural, like you are seeing in Europe and Asia, including NZ, and subside... however when your overall prevalence is so high at baseline then those spikes will be quite devastating. Per capita the US remains number 1 here and don’t think any country will beat us.

This is why rhetoric and leadership were/are important. Trump implying actions speak louder than words hold minimal merit. His words run as gospel to his delusional base that still don’t know if this is a hoax or China’s fault. A good part of the failed mitigation is because of his rhetoric... for the last 6 months.

I didn’t think this needed to be said, but u realize the most accurate way to truly see the numbers is by looking at excess mortality. Average amount of MIs in 7/2017 vs 7/2018 vs 7/2020 etc. the actual death rate is likely larger than what we have officially recorded. Don’t think people realize how much of a cluster fuck testing was from March to May. It got better for several months, and now regressing again

The last part of your post , % contagious , % mutations. As if even if those numbers were available the public could comprehend and make reasonable decisions with that information. The public cannot understand a basic - masks decrease spread argument. America is lagging the first world, I blame diminishing education standards for a couple decades in a row now. This is what you get, an entitled and simultaneously braindead society. In all seriousness these numbers you are asking about are largely irrelevant. Reinfection occurs , is not that common, and is largely benign. This isn’t a scifi movie where it’s going to mutate and kill everyone. respiratory pathogens become increasingly benign and they will be a part of the tens to hundreds of other respiratory viruses that pop up every year. The point is you have to get there

This post was edited by Bazi on Sep 23 2020 03:37pm

strawman, when the disease was rapidly spreading we should have shut down hard to slow the spread and give contact tracers a chance to isolate this virus. we didn't, we stayed open in half or more of the states, which might as well be all of them. i simplified the math, it would looks more like this instead roughly, with numbers listed in percent efficiency by month:

Hard shutdown:
0-25-50-75-85-85-85-85-85-85-85-85

12 month effectiveness total: 915

Half Assed Shutdown:
50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50-50

12 month effectiveness total: 600


by me restaurants are boarding up en masse, bars closing en masse, schools closing like dominos, stores closing up, buses with passenger limits, factories at constant limited capacity from quarantining employees, movie theaters at 25% capacity, wait lines at big box stores due to capacity limits, churches still completely virtual, school and community center programs cancelled, sports seasons cancelled, etc.

we're not even close to open, the only thing even close are Walmart and public parks, literally everything else is running at a low capacity and i'm in an area with rapidly increasing cases. both my state and my area in that state.

the idea that locking people down when the virus initially started to spread wouldnt have reduced the cases and length of shutdown is absurd, corona cant walk through closed doors, its not a ghost.

Bars, restaurants, movie theaters and such were fucked no matter what. They were always gonna be part of the complementary 15% to your 85%. Similarly, it's absurd to think that quarantining employees and students, limiting capacities in buses and stores etc. would not occur with lower case numbers. Yes, a half-assed shutdown was a bad idea and your country should have acted quicker and more decisively. I'm not arguing against that. What I'm saying is that the notion of achieving near-normalcy after a hard shutdown is unrealistic.

Look no further than Spain and France, two countries which shut down haaaard back in March through May and brought their daily cases way down. Now, they're back at huge numbers and might have to shut down the worst affected places once again. Same story in Israel, which nipped the virus in the bud with a hard initial shutdown - they got hit by a huge second wave too because people thought they could go back to normal based on their country's low prevalence, now they're locked down again.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Note the population of those countries in relation to that of the U.S.: France has 67m people, Spain 47, Israel 9m. Ten thousand daily cases in Spain are equivalent to 70k cases in the U.S.


No offense, but the tldr of your post is that your sleepy rural Wisconsin town is so far off the beaten track that your place is only now hit by the first proper wave, and you're grumpy and gloomy because of it.

i dont think that, and havent said anything that would suggest i do. lmk where u pulled that from.

but also no, you're just plainly wrong. Places like rural Iowa where my uncle just died from Covid, are seeing their first earnest wave. they went up until recently with 10-20 total cases per county and only spiked at 100 or so for 6 months of covid, then it exploded.

where i am, in an area with 50k+ population cities all over the place, we're on about our 3rd wave. we had hundreds of cases per county in the early stage, and large spikes after restaurants/bars reopened prematurely, and now a third spike as schools tried and failed to reopen. my wife, a teacher, has had weekly cases of peers catching covid or quarantining. ive been forced to quarantine twice, 4 months apart. the governor just issued a state of emergency, again, months from the first.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/517725-wisconsin-governor-declares-emergency-amid-surge-in-infections



google: "wisconsin covid cases by day"

the fact that we've been at 1k new cases/day and are now spiking serves my point, that a half assed approach was always the wrong starting point. its now a festering wound.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Sep 24 2020 08:28am