Tulsi would have really opened the Trump campaign up to accusations of being in bed with dictators like Assad or Putin. Also, her beliefs on many issues are classical left-wing, so she would not have been a good fit. Or trustworthy for conservative voters.

Vance isn't a great politician and people typically have a negative initial reaction to him, then warm up to him the more they hear him speak. Vance isn't the greatest pick from an electoral point of view, but I believe he is a great pick if the Trump/Vance ticket can win this election and actually gets to govern for four years. With Vance, Trump has found himself a running mate who shares most of his beliefs and worldview. And Vance is one of the best at selling MAGA policies and stances to college-educated voters. (Vance isn't actually a working-class whisperer; relative to the baselines, he's stronger with college-educated voters!)

Vance is also a good pick for Trump as some sort of insurance policy. If the powers that be assassinate him now, they won't get back swampy uniparty policy - instead, they will be stuck with nationalist-populist policies, just lead by a younger and smarter guy.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 31 2024 04:52am

Vance is unambiguously a better pick from an electoral point of view on the conventional metric. The standard thinking is that VP picks have almost zero impact beyond the state they are from and only a small bump there, which is why Walz being from a solid blue state and Vance being from a swing state gives Vance the edge. There's been no shortage of media campaign to try to fluff up Walz and make Vance look bad, but the truth is that by election day nobody will care.

im sorry, but WHAT? have you listened to him speak ever? he has the personality of a wet dish rag. there is nothing exciting about him , hes the kindergarten version of Mike Pence but maybe thats what Trump wants? a neutered lapdog that has no personality and will do whatever he wants lol

mark my words, when Trump loses he will 100% blame it on Vance

game over, man

If Ohio is any close this November, Trump has already lost the overall election by a wide margin. Any remotely realistic winning scenario for Trump involves him winning Ohio by at the very least 5-6%.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 31 2024 01:42pm

Ohio has swung between +4.6 D to +8.1 R in the past few decades. Minnesota is a blue wall state and its impossible for Kamala to lose it in anything but a total blowout.
In a nailbiter election, Trump needs to hold onto Ohio if other swing states fall. Having Vance in place definitely has strategic importance. Having Walz, does not.

People still call Gaetz a pedo?
I remember the headlines Gaetz had sex with a former minor!!!

Ohio has swung hard to the right since 2016. Trump won it by 8 in a year in which he lost nationally by 4.5. You could make the exact same argument ("it was swingy in the past, Obama won it twice") about Iowa being a swing state.
Fact of the matter is that Democrats can still win Ohio, but only when the national environment is a blue wave or they have an extraordinarily strong incumbent.

The argument about Minnesota is flawed, too, if you ask me. Hillary only won it by 1.5 in a year which she overall won by 2.1. Going by uniform swing, Trump could have carried it that year while still losing the popular vote. Even in 2020, Biden won Minnesota by a smaller margin than Trump's in Ohio.

You could make an argument that Ohio could swing back toward Democrats in the future, but that's only realistic if the candidates or the policy platforms shift fundamentally. Which clearly isn't the case in 2024. The GOP runs the same candidate as the previous two cycles who still espouses the same ideology and has mostly the same platform. The Dems run a quasi-incumbent and clearly haven't changed their platform or general, ideological direction either.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 1 2024 12:47am

Ya know I wanted to chime in just to say that after looking at the polling numbers and trends in the past few years, you're actually right and I was wrong and I should give some credit for that.
Minnesota has shifted far left from where it was in 2016, since then, and boosted by massive demographic changes, the state has gone +10 democrat or so. The 2022 elections had candidates who ran on support for the george floyd mobs, for setting criminals free, for the draconian covid mandates- and they won with clear majorities. Not just at local city levels, but statewide elections. It wasn't close. There wasn't a wave of backlash against the extremes we witnessed, but an embrace of them. Its how we wound up with Mary Moriarty after all.
But I think the difference I missed is Ohio has really gone about equally in the opposite direction. They're much less of a tossup than they used to be, too. A solid red state like MN is a solid blue state, +10 D vs +10 R. And just like Minnesota can't be lost by Harris without a nationwide blowout, that's probably the same for Trump in Ohio.

Fair enough. One thing that should be kept in mind about 2022 is that the year saw unusually strong regional variation. States like Florida, New York or California saw veritable red waves while states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota saw mini blue waves.

It was a really weird year, presumably due to Dobbs. The more secular Midwestern states with strong pro-choice majorities, but competitive Republicans, swung to the left while Dobbs/abortion wasn't nearly as salient in deep-blue states (NY, CA) where voters didn't perceive abortion rights to be at risk.

You're obviously much more knowledgable about Minnesota politics than me, so correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it also a state in which college-educated wokesters make up a particularly high share of the Democratic coalition? Simply because it's a more "empty" state than, say, Michigan or Pennsylvania. There's not a lot of midsized cities in MN, just depopulated rurals and the Twin Cities. Structurally, the trends should clearly favor Democrats. The best shot for a Republicans breakthrough was probably 2016.