Quote (EndlessSky @ 7 Sep 2020 19:34)
With an IFR of 0.1%, the U.S. would end up with 320k deaths after a full spread through 100% of the population, or 264k deaths if we assume 80% pervasion (70% for herd immunity, 10% overshoot).
You are almost at this death toll already, and will easily reach that number before everything is said and done - and that's without being anywhere near herd immunity. My point is that 0.1% is too low of an estimate for the IFR. Btw: the official CDC estimate is 0.65% [1]. An IFR of 0.65% with 80% pervasion would still yield 1.7 million deaths, an unacceptably high death toll. So the bottom line is that the fatality rate predictions might have been too high, but not by as much as your article claims, and not in a way that would have fundamentally shifted rational political decision making.
Oh yeah, and of course lol @RT XD
Also interesting is the following article, which examines how substantially the IFR varies between different countries, based on age structure and local factors (such as the quality of the healthcare system):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3[1]
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html -> Table 1