Quote (Thor123422 @ Sep 11 2020 09:47pm)

I believe both of those things will likely happen, herd immunity either through a vaccine or because we never made one and it naturally spread.

Notice how we needed neither of those things for Ebola to be stopped. Notice how we needed neither of those things for Swine Flu to be stopped. The reason is there is a tradeoff between lethality and ability to spread. The more lethal a virus is the less likely it is to be able to be asymptomatic, and therefore impossible to contain. Ebola is way on the lethal side of the spectrum, where if you are contagious, you have very obvious symptoms. The common cold and swine flu is on the other side, where it's super easy to spread and the symptoms are either non-existent or mild, but it's virtually never deadly. Covid is right in the sweet spot where it can be asymptomatic but still get bad enough to be deadly in a not-insignificant portion of the population. That is why Covid was treated far more harshly than Swine Flu or Ebola, because for a nation Covid is far more deadly.

Quote (Landmine @ Sep 11 2020 11:37pm)

So would you say the government over reacted based on the mortality rate that we see now? On a economic stand point this country may not truly recover in the next 10 years. (Being optimistic)

Quote (Thor123422 @ Sep 11 2020 10:44pm)

It's not a matter of over-reaction or under-reaction. It's about right action.

Trump refused to use the WHO's test methodology, instead opting to develop our own, which took weeks longer.
Trump actively discouraged mask wearing and supported "liberate" efforts to lift lockdowns early.
Trump actively sewed conspiracy theory nonsense among the public and disparaged his experts.
Trump avoided closing down when we should have, instead delaying it and not giving states any guidance on the matter.

Like I said, it's not a matter of making the wrong decision, it's that our president actively went in the exact opposite direction than where the evidence was pointing. If he hadn't done that, we wouldn't be seeing an economic fallout on this case, and we could have avoided a lot of cases and deaths.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 12 2020 01:16am)

I might be out of the loop, but what does the economic fallout in the US actually look like? What is the up to date GDP growth projection for this calender year?

While I agree that Trump has botched the covid response in a lot of ways, I really dont think that these botches had a strong impact on the economic fallout. It's more the death toll and the division surrounding the issue that are of his making.

Quote (thundercock @ Sep 13 2020 06:59am)

There's a huge divergence between wall street and main street for sure. It's difficult to know what the fallout will be regarding rent and late mortgages. It's very possible that we have a looming crisis around the corner. A lot of people are still unemployed (think back to 2011 levels) but we don't really know when those jobs will come back.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 12 2020 04:16am)

I might be out of the loop, but what does the economic fallout in the US actually look like? What is the up to date GDP growth projection for this calender year?

While I agree that Trump has botched the covid response in a lot of ways, I really dont think that these botches had a strong impact on the economic fallout. It's more the death toll and the division surrounding the issue that are of his making.

Quote (EndlessSky @ Sep 13 2020 07:16am)

If Democratic governors didnt shut down NYC, California, and New Jersey so badly for six months straight the recession would have been minimal.

The downturn was offset by basically 5 Trillion$ in debt.

Quote (thundercock @ 12 Sep 2020 22:59)

There's a huge divergence between wall street and main street for sure. It's difficult to know what the fallout will be regarding rent and late mortgages. It's very possible that we have a looming crisis around the corner. A lot of people are still unemployed (think back to 2011 levels) but we don't really know when those jobs will come back.