Quote (Black XistenZ @ 17 Jul 2024 19:15)
An excellent and deep article, I really enjoyed reading it. However, I believe one central premise of the argument is wrong: that it would serve Europe's long-term interest to keep expanding trade with Russia and China unbridled, thus deepening strategic dependence on these countries and also facilitating China's technological rise. I'm generally more on the autonomist side of the atlanticist/autonomist divide, and perhaps Europe is currently leaning to strongly into the anti-Russia and -China position, but a smart, sustainable "autonomist course" for Europe need not be naive.
At the end of the day, Europe imho needs to chart a healthy middle ground on geopolitics and strategic economic dependencies (some of which will always be inevitable). This, in turn, means that Europe imho loses less by aligning closely with US interests than the article suggests. Europe's current stance is suboptimal, yes, but not as suboptimal as claimed.
The article is not arguing that Europe needs to cut ties with US right away, but argues that over time grievances are accumulating whereby falling 100% in line with US foreign policy starts to hurt domestic European companies. See for example todays ASML share loss that wiped out 40Bn+ in market cap because quote:
Quote (https://nltimes.nl/2024/07/17/asml-loses-significant-stock-market-value-due-potential-us-export-restrictions)
The US is discussing whether to impose a measure called the Foreign Direct Product Rule, or FDPR. This provision was implemented in 1959. It gives the United States government the power to prevent a product from being sold to a country if it has been made with the help of American technology. This also applies to products made abroad.
Many European companies (and countries) are in a tight spot whereby they are forced to choose sides by Washington and Brussels. The big example of how EU should conduct itself is Cuba where EU explicitly allows trade and is against sanctions on Cuba while only two countries in the whole world keep up this wierd charade of treating Cuba like an outcast. You as a German can go to a nearby shop and get some Cuban rum and cigars, while our ameribros have to import it illegally breaching sanctions. EU should do more of that independent thinking when it comes to bigger questions than rum, cigars and a bit of occasional tourism.
In case of eg Russia this was a painful (I hope temporary) divorce which is in the process of unfolding as we speak. Divorcing with China will come with unprecedented loss of quality of life. Some Germans might need to start working 5 days a week again!
This post was edited by Malopox on Jul 17 2024 11:49am