Quote (ofthevoid @ 7 Sep 2020 23:34)
1.8% was the difference that caused Trump to lose Minnesota in 2016. Months of daily riots will push a ton of fence sitters especially in urban/suburban areas that see that shit on the daily to orange man. I honestly would be shocked if he lost MN.
But the urban core and particularly the suburbs have trended against Trump for 4 years straight. Since those make up over half of Minnesota's population, he probably started from a less favorable baseline in 2020 than he did in 2016. And on top of that, demographic chance has also shifted the baseline against him.
The polls currently show Biden up 6.2% in MN and 7.5% nationally, making MN an R+1.3 state right now, while it was an R+0.6 state in 2016 (Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% and MN by 1.5%). And that's with the riots already baked in. Trump will most likely not be able to come within 1.3% of Biden in the national popular vote, so at this rate, it seems unlikely that he can carry the state unless the polls are far off. And I see no reason why they should be, the riots in MN have been going on for 3 months, people have made up their mind about them.
I think the most plausible explanation is that the George Floyd killing has caused some swing voters or soft GOP voters to "get woke" and break against Trump, thus counteracting the gains he made with swing voters and DINOs based on backlash against the riots. For example, if 6 out of 100 voters swing toward Trump based on their dislike of the riots and 4 out of 100 swing against Trump based on police brutality and a rejection of his racial stances, then his net gains are cut to one third.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 7 2020 04:12pm