Quote (dro94 @ 19 Jun 2024 22:32)

Yeah, I think we'll get a handle of it at some point, but it will be too late. Too many will be in our countries, too many will be able to vote and put political pressure on us from within.

Eastern Europe really did amazing on this compared to Western Europe. Look at Poland or Hungary, with 98%+ native population, rising living standards, decent birth rate, while being open to tourists and democratic.

Clearly, migrants generally aren't as interested in going there so they haven't had it as hard as us, but it's still admirable.

In 20 years, Brits might want to move to Poland!

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 20 2024 03:20am)

If current economic growth rates continue for another 12-15 years or so, Poland will be richer than the UK, lol.

Quote (dro94 @ 20 Jun 2024 08:40)

More like 5-10 years, and Germany in 15 years. But current economic growth rates tend not to continue on the same trajectory once an economy is developed compared to when they were developing.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 20 2024 01:47pm)

Yes, I know. ;) And it's highly unlikely that there won't be another major recession within the next 15 years anyway. Regarding them overtaking Germany: note that a significant chunk of the Polish growth is based on supply chains for German corporations locating over there, so any kind of economic malaise in Germany will spill over into the Polish economy.

It's still astonishing how far Poland has come, considering where they were in 1990. By 2027, the EU projects them to become net contributors to the EU budget, i.e. paying more in dues than receiving in funding.
And they did all of that in spite of demographic stagnation. They're really the poster child for EU economic aid propping a country up and allowing it to stand on its own feet. Quite the difference to places like Greece or southern Italy...

Quote (dro94 @ Jun 21 2024 01:34pm)

Not having mass immigration and a low birth rate could have been a driver of their productivity growth, as companies had no choice but to invest in capital to drive efficiencies with fewer workers.

Do you invest in the fruit picking drones or import the fruit pickers? Robot cleaners? I saw more of them during my time in Malaysia than I have done in the UK. There are so many examples.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Jun 21 2024 03:57pm)

Maybe it was massive amount of EU cash. Or the fact that Polands economy was far, far below the level of Western Europe so growth is relative and was inevitable.

"Since joining the EU in May 2004, Poland has been the largest net recipient of EU funds. Between that year and 2022,
it received over €232 billion from the EU budget while contributing around €77 billion."

A net 160 billion over 18 years.

It certainly has less to do with their low levels of immigration, although that is probably a delicious trope for right wing sluggers.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Jun 21 2024 04:57pm)

Maybe it was massive amount of EU cash. Or the fact that Polands economy was far, far below the level of Western Europe so growth is relative and was inevitable.

"Since joining the EU in May 2004, Poland has been the largest net recipient of EU funds. Between that year and 2022,
it received over €232 billion from the EU budget while contributing around €77 billion."

A net 160 billion over 18 years.

It certainly has less to do with their low levels of immigration, although that is probably a delicious trope for right wing sluggers.

Quote (dro94 @ Jun 21 2024 04:29pm)

We already pointed to those factors in previous posts. It's not binary where receiving EU cash means low immigration wasn't also a boon to productivity.

Quote (Meanwhile @ Jun 21 2024 04:36pm)

Washing machine and refrgerator good brands "made in" respectively Poland and "CZ" here...

But I guess most of the money did not end up in their hands. /e

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Jun 21 2024 05:51pm)

What does point to low immigration being a boon to productivity?



A lower average wage allows for increased competitivity. And seeing as Poland had so much lower average wages following its emergence from Soviet economic failure, there was bound to be competitivity.

Germany vs Poland. Its more than 3:1

"Average Wage [+] 2023 $65,816 chart $20,406 2023 Average Wage [+]"

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 21 Jun 2024 16:57)

Maybe it was massive amount of EU cash. Or the fact that Polands economy was far, far below the level of Western Europe so growth is relative and was inevitable.