Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 11 2020 12:36pm)
Do you mean 18 months for the Phase 3 trial alone? If yes, that's just unrealistic. No country will be willing to wait that long. It would mean that we would, from now, need another 21 or so months (distributing takes time too) of mask wearing, social distancing, shut down businesses in the hospitality and leisure industries, hampered schooling, etc. pp.
Completely skipping any clinical trials like the Russians is insane, but some shortcuts will be taken. The risk of doing 6 months of trials as opposed to 18 months is probably a risk worth taking, considering the immense damage the pandemic continues to cause.
18 months for all 3 trials combined.
If you have a perfect manufacturing process in place, all trials go perfectly and have an amazing response rate, and you get fast-tracked through FDA approval, 18 months is what you would look at.
If you get a vaccine in less than 18 months it means they either cut corners on analyzing effectiveness or safety.