Quote (thundercock @ 3 May 2020 19:58)
As long as the Biden campaign is building up its data platform, getting donors in line, etc. he's fine. Trying to fight COVID-19 AND Trump for press coverage is a fool's errand and I think he knows that.
Do you honestly think the debate will be an issue for Biden? If he can handle Sanders, he can easily handle Trump. All those poor Sanders supporters thought that Sanders would expose Biden 1v1 but that didn't happen.
What makes you think the GOP has an advantage on the economy? Obama won twice when the economy was shit. It seems to be that whoever is in charge during the economic crisis ends up taking the blame.
Oh, I totally agree that staying mia is the smart thing to do for Biden at this point in time. I just dont think that the current situation, and thus the polling that comes with it, can be extrapolated to November.
You're probably right about the debates in that I am underestimating Biden. My political bias probably makes me more inclined to buy into the "Biden is completely senile, trololol"-narrative than is justified. Ok, enough self-consciousness for today.
I still think that Sanders was too tame and timid during the debate. He didnt try to get under Biden's skin, he didnt really antagonize and press him during their debate. Trump will do all of that, and more. So yeah, I'm probably underestimating Biden, but he will still struggle more in a debate with Trump than he did in a debate with a resigned Bernie who already knew deep down that he had lost.
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Obama was the greatest political talent in decades, he was a far better politician than either McCain or Romney.
In 2008, the Republicans had already held the WH for 8 years, and history shows that Americans tend to vote for a change of pace in such a situation. Furthermore, this previous GOP presidency was a disaster, from failed economic policies (remember how the economy cycle between the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the onset of the great recession was thoroughly mediocre), an unnecessary war which was a complete disaster on all fronts, over the botched response to hurricane katrina to the failed response to the ongoing economic crisis. Obama didnt need an advantage on the economy to win that race.
In 2012, the economy wasnt shit anymore, but not great either. Iirc, the economic fundamentals of the race pointed to a neutral environment. And Romney was not a great candidate, far worse than Obama. And his platform was out of step with where the base was. And incumbents usually win reelection. And despite al of that, Romney still got somewhat close. It was a winnable race for the GOP.
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Regarding the GOP polling advantage on economic issues:
I've read this statement (Republicans consistently enjoying a polling advantage over Democrats on the economy) just a few days ago, but cant, for the life of me, find it in my browsing history.
However, some concrete polls supporting this point:
A year ago, the GOP held a 12 point edge on the economy:
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/438482-gop-enjoys-12-point-advantage-on-handling-economyAnd in 2011, they also did:
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/trust_on_issues/voters_trust_republicans_more_than_democrats_on_economyYou are, however, right in pointing out that voters might very well blame Trump/the GOP for the current economic crisis, no matter if it's their fault or not. So this usual advantage of the GOP on this issue might become moot.