Biden demanded that the fentanyl trade will have to pay "10% to the big guy" going forward, Xi refused.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 14 2023 04:02pm

In other words
46% of Americans say their situation hasn’t changed despite the federal funds rate going from 0 to 5%

That’s actually pretty incredible

Get this loser European mentality out of here

I mean did biden start a war in ukraine? Are australian MUCH higher interest and inflation his fault too?
We have the same dumb people in my country blaming the left for the same thing but none of them can explain how its our fault.

There is definitely an argument to be made that the economy is doing okay, given the difficult circumstances. (I don't agree, but it's a fair argument.)

What is not feasible, however, is reconciling a number like "86% of the country experiencing economic stagnation or decline" with the claim that the economy is "pretty amazing". Against this backdrop, accusing those who disagree on the economy being pretty amazing as "living in fantasy land" is undeniably arrogant and out of touch.

You don’t have to agree

This is an objective process

The economy doesn’t care about your feelings

86% of the economy experiencing stagnation or decline is an insanely narrow standpoint

In the same words, 50% of America have not experienced any change despite federal funds historic rate increase

Both statements confer opposite sentiments. Both statements are facts

But I guess that’s what happens when your arguments lack substance, rely on sentiment lol

Carry on Europe, whatever helps you feel better about your situation ig

Btw are you going to post South Korean and Australian core prints or am I gonna have to, which if I were to guess will only further demonstrate europes central bank failures

This post was edited by Bazi on Nov 14 2023 05:04pm

Lmao, the economy and stock markets are unironically driven in large part by psychology and the subjective feelings of market participants. You will be hard-pressed to find any reputable economists who disagrees with that.


The interest rate hikes coincided with a historically tight labor market and huge public deficit spending. Furthermore, the FED had to raise rates so drastically because inflation had gotten out of hand in the first place.
If we're taking context like the fund rates into consideration, we also have to take the rest of the available context into consideration.



Like I've stressed repeatedly, Europe's economy is impacted far worse by the energy fallout from the war in Ukraine than either NA or Asia. And I'm surely no defender of the European Central Bank, they've been a failure for the past 12 years.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 14 2023 06:16pm

Not talking at all about the stock market, talking about the economy

Inflation, gdp, labor market, wages, etc

Sentiment is not relevant here, surely there are different objective ways to evaluate this data however it doesn’t involve sentiment

UK worst months have been recent, the Ukraine war started over a year ago now. Core inflation is not as flawed as you suggest and even still it’s still near the highs. Plus if you’re trying to cite the Ukraine war as a factor for why CORE increases in Europe it would not make sense to be spiking core across Europe all at different times.

There’s really just no way to spin the 1st world outdoing American central banks post covid, no matter how you change goal posts to include arbitrary sentiment, or the stock market

This post was edited by Bazi on Nov 14 2023 07:17pm

Consumer spending, hiring, corporate investment levels and so on are all tied to subjective expectations about where the economy is headed.


The UK is a total clusterfuck because the fallout from Brexit, from covid and from the war in Ukraine all coincided and overlapped. But yes, they have been badly mismanaged and are doing horribly.


I was talking about the handling of inflation and the post-pandemic recovery by the entire government, not exclusively by the FED. The FED committed a grave mistake in 2021 by not taking the building inflation seriously enough, calling it transitory etc. But ever since the moment they've realized that inflation was not transitory and would not go away on its own, they've reacted almost perfectly; acted quickly and decisively without overdoing it so much that employment takes a hit. The other central banks were far weaker in their response, and it's showing.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 14 2023 08:13pm

Yeah I should have clarified - post acknowledgment of inflation is not transitory colossal fuck up

I still don’t even know how the world got it this wrong and for that long

But at the end of the day, soft / no landing is now base case which wasn’t the consensus a year ago

I understand UK isn’t Germany , isn’t France , etc

But there is such a wide spectrum of performance in Europe amongst 1st world nations. Don’t say energy lol

Generally speaking, the higher a country's export orientation, the worse their economy is doing due to the economic slump in China. And yes, the more a country relied on Russian energy, the quicker and steeper the surge of inflation last year. I have no idea, though, what is causing the high CPI in France right now.