Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 28 2020 01:25am)
We have a president whose approval ratings were far underwater to begin with, who had staked his reelection on a booming economy, now having to deal with a global pandemic which has ravaged the economy and public life, has laid bare all his personal shortcomings, has shifted focus of the political debate to topics which are bad for him and his party (healthcare, good government mattering). There is nothing he could do to make this crisis go away, the mistakes that he already made were significant and will come back to haunt him, and now his challenger is ~6% ahead in most national polls. And to top it all off, the pandemic might change the way the campaign is fought (no big rallies) in a way that takes away his greatest campaigning skill and covers the weaknesses of his challenger.
Sure, a lot can still change between now and election day - but someone who would bet even money on Trump's reelection as of today is an idiot. Right now, this race defintely is not a coinflip. Trump has to turn things around from where we stand today, if he doesnt, then he's doomed. Dont get me wrong though, I'm not saying he's a huge underdog. Running against a very underwhelming challenger who has glaring weaknesses of his own, coupled with his likely advantage in the electoral college, mean that Trump still has a decent shot at reelection. I would say in the 30-40% range, but definitely below 50%.
Trump being re elected would not be coming up from the rear or bringing a victory out of defeat. I would just be another demonstration on how big the incumbant advantage is in a 2 person race.... And the reality is that for somebody to not get reelected there has to be a 3rd party splitting that ideological vote.
We are a spoils system. No matter how many people in the country thinks their president is a stinker they still don't wanna be a loser.
Trump has been so successful in getting people to hate the Democratic Party that they hate the Democratic Party more than he sucks and that is his strategy. You either show up and vote for him or you're voting for Nancy Pelosi. Great fucking instincts.
This post was edited by Skinned on Apr 28 2020 05:45am