Quote (ThatAlex @ 2 Nov 2018 04:24)
I don't see them taking the Senate, either. But this past week may have turned a potentially 2 or 3 Senate seat gain for the GOP into a only a 1 seat gain or a hold. And as we've seen during this Congress, a majority in a chamber isn't always an ideological majority. So the margins definitely matter. 51 seats vs 52 or 53 seats can be a big difference.
Also, the GOP will want to hold onto or gain as many Senate seats as they can during these midterms because as favorable as their map is now, they are going to want some cushion during the 2020 election when there is a risk for huge Democratic turnout with Trump on the ballot.
honestly, i think with trump on the ballot, presidential years are better for the gop than midterms.
trump caused a huge surge in rural and white working-class turnout in 2016, and he'll do it again in 2020. (or he's toastier than toast anyway.)
but during this year's midterms, those voters who only turned out in 2016 because of trump will have a much lower turnout, while hatred for trump is still riling up the democratic base at full force.