You still operate under the premise that the absolutely only thing motivating GOP voters is whether a candidate is pro- or anti-Trump; that it is a pure cult of personality with zero substance or policy behind it.
I disagree. Look no further than Brian Kemp, who comfortably won both his primary against a Trump-backed challenger and his general election.

In the context of a GOP primary, the only candidates that exist are pro-Trump or anti-Trump. That's how the GOP exists now, because it is a personality cult. A Kemp candidate can succeed in a state like Georgia, but he has no chance in a GOP primary against Trump.

As much as you need to believe it's just a personality cult, that is far less of a factor now than it was in 2016. Remember, Trump served a term in office as President. And the policy direction of his administration was by and large mainstream Republican - taxes and law and order, with some neo Republicanism / populism mixed in by not starting any wars. A high tier administration, policy wise, despite the President's personal failings. Time to move on from TDS, friendo. And I say that as a DeSantis guy.

You're just repeating your basic premise without citing any arguments or evidence in its favor, and while dismissing evidence to the contrary.

Let me put it like this: Georgia is not the only state in which the electorate has proven to be "Trump-sceptic" over the past 6 years. In a hypothetical Trump vs DeSantis race, I would definitely expect DeSantis to win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Texas, Colorado, Utah, Oklahoma and Kansas while Trump would definitely win Ohio, West Virginia and Iowa, and more likely than not the Northern battlegrounds (WI, MI, PA).

Even TiStuff is disturbed when Trump attacks DeSantis, I think that goes to show that the same old attacks aren't going to work. Jeb Bush was a weak institutionalist who represented the people who had gotten run over by Obama. Cruz is slimy. Marco's presence is weak, he reminds me of a less clever Ben Shapiro. DeSantis doesn't have the best presence, and his word choice can be poor, but he's intelligent and picks battles well. He has perfected the sort of fight that Trump did clumsily. We'll see how it all plays out, but Trump's announcement was weak. He's lost the magic that spurred his first run.

I think that's really the key to the ease with which Kemp was able to fend off the Trump-backed primary challenge: he did not buckle to the pressure from the MSM or woke corporations, he passed his election reform bill, did well on covid and generally focused on notching policy wins for the base rather than a petty feud with Trump. From the pov of a conservative base voter, he had an almost perfect track record, his only "sin" was not going along with Trump's post-election delusions.



Low energy. SAD!

But seriously: Trump is just too damn old. Even during his final 18 months in office, the decline in mental sharpness and general energy level was palpable. Same story with Biden, who was just a shadow of his former, 2008-2012-era self by the time the 2020 campaign kicked off. And of course Obama aged by what felt like 25 years during his 8 years in the White House. It's just a grueling job and not something for septuagenarians.

Leave it to the American Boomer generation to visciously hold onto power well into their 80s. These 2 need to be shown the door.

That's true, because I believe it's so obvious. I mean just look at anyone who was considered a MAGA member in good standing who began criticizing Trump. Look at the people who started to criticize him after Jan. 6th(Lindsey Graham, Nikki Haley, Kevin McCarthy) who did a complete 180 because they recognize the voters are part of his personality cult. Look at Liz Cheney, who was ousted from leadership because she couldn't abide Republican election-denialism. Look at all the people who worked for him, got fired, and started criticizing because they saw how insane and incompetent he was. You can counter these examples with some cult logic about these people being neocons or traitors, but I don't think that's a serious position.

Look at every scandal that happened under Trump. Russiagate was never a story of Trump hiring sketchy people who had questionable connections with Russians(or being willing to do business with Putin during his presidential run(Trump tower in Moscow)), Ukrainegate was never about Trump using his power to pressure an ally to investigate a political opponent. Those instances of Trump being a corrupt scumbag were flipped upside down into a narrative about Trump being a victim. The Trump cult isn't just the voters, it's the media. Fox News primetime gets more viewers in America than any other news network. They(along with talk radio and various websites) are the structure for the Trump cult. They(like Russian television for Putin) are the propaganda arm of the cult.

All of these people are conditioned to turn everyone who makes an anti-Trump argument into a traitor. That's been the reaction to every single instance of Trump doing something wrong. So, yes, there's a large space in the head of Republican voters to accept a new person. They know Trump is chaotic. But the second DeSantis becomes anti-Trump, by publicly criticizing the Dear Leader, he falls into the anti-Trump character in the narrative that has played out time and time again these past number of years. Those neural pathways are set for Republican voters.

I think DeSantis could win, if he basically refuses(for the most part) to criticize Trump. He should run and ignore Trump almost entirely. He cannot win by being the anti-Trump candidate. And that's what he has done so far, so maybe he has good advisers.

Btw, my view of Trump, the right-wing, and the Republican party has basically been affirmed non-stop for 7 years. You guys(Black, Bogie, Goomshill, etc) didn't think Jan 6th could happen. I wish I could find the post, but I remember Goom(and others) pre-election 2020 completely minimizing Trump's refusal to accept the results, saying it's just a media story, and we see how that turned out. You didn't think the Republican party would accept Trump as the leader after Jan 6th happened. So you have a mindset that does not conform to reality in regards to how the right-wing in America operates. I do. I would love to be proven wrong, but so far that hasn't happened.

This post was edited by IceMage on Dec 1 2022 10:57pm

Fux news poll:
Among Republican-identifying poll respondents, 55% said they would back DeSantis, while 45% named Trump as the person they want representing the GOP in the 2024 election.
Nice split

/e

The new poll comes after a Quinnipiac University National poll published in November found that 43% of Americans prefer DeSantis for the GOP nomination compared to only 29% who named Trump. Republican voters were evenly split over who they prefer to win the Republican nomination, with 44% preferring Trump and another 44% naming DeSantis.

The Quinnipiac University poll also found that 57% of Americans think Trump running for president in 2024 is a "bad thing." Among Democrats, that number increased to 88%. Among Republicans, however, only 27% said they believe another Trump bid is a bad thing.


Woaw I was thinking less republicans would support Donald, i was wrong , he holds a very solid, DENSE, block



Can't you see all these brave Christians ?





This post was edited by Meanwhile on Dec 1 2022 11:32pm

https://twitter.com/njhochman/status/1593217654881325057

Populist National Review writer making the same sort of points I've made the past page.