Quote (Vastet @ Feb 27 2022 03:49pm)
I predicted the annexation of Crimea and I predicted the war on Ukraine. But I'm unable to make predictions on what happens next. Shit is too messy now. Russia very much has a right to defend itself but we are now at a point where defence of Russia involves a lot more than just simple military pieces on the board. The inaction of China speaks volumes on how far China is willing to go.
If I was forced to make a prediction at gun point I would have to say that Russia will liberate Donbass and Lugansk, and keep Crimea. But it will not topple the government of Ukraine. And there's a non-zero chance the remainder of Ukraine will be fast-tracked into NATO, as well as Sweden and Finland. Overall Russia will be worse off than it was, but it will gain the security buffer it desires to have. Though the value of that buffer is questionable.
This largely depends on how willing the EU and NATO are to relieve sanctions if Russia satisfies itself with the above, as well as the China wildcard. If there is no willingness in the West to de-escalate, then Russia will likely take the entire country and install a puppet government. It really has nothing else to lose and while there isn't much to gain there is some gain to be had. Unless China tells them straight up that is unacceptable, but unless something drastic happens I don't think China will involve itself.
China has pretty much said it is unacceptable already I thought with them demanding both sides “Search for peace and stop fighting.).