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Jan 15 2022 09:41pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 15 2022 01:31pm)
You're delusional.

Also, before new york flips, the entire midwest would already have flipped, plus texas and arizona would be firmly back in the GOP column. In the scenario you described, the map would look something like this in a best case scenario for Dems:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/ADPm9

So no, NY is never flipping, Dems would be forced to readjust their platform before it comes to that.


you are SO gonna wanna delete this post.
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Jan 15 2022 09:53pm
Quote (thundercock @ 15 Jan 2022 22:18)
Hispanics (and Arabs) were always considered white until recently. Hell, a majority of Hispanics IDENTIFIED as "white" in the 2010 census!

Also, we've done the math before and the effect that immigration has on the electorate is pretty small compared to other trends like the one in the OP. Republicans could EASILY get a vast majority of the immigrant demographic because they are overwhelmingly conservative. They just don't feel the need to perform outreach due to electoral advantages. If you don't need to change, why would you change?

because they’ve long been called the stupid party for a reason. some orange bloviator made some attempt at this outreach a few years back and the (R) swamp demon party/lefties/media coalesced to eliminate him

This post was edited by excellence on Jan 15 2022 09:54pm
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Jan 15 2022 10:45pm
Quote (thundercock @ Jan 15 2022 07:18pm)
Hispanics (and Arabs) were always considered white until recently. Hell, a majority of Hispanics IDENTIFIED as "white" in the 2010 census!

Also, we've done the math before and the effect that immigration has on the electorate is pretty small compared to other trends like the one in the OP. Republicans could EASILY get a vast majority of the immigrant demographic because they are overwhelmingly conservative. They just don't feel the need to perform outreach due to electoral advantages. If you don't need to change, why would you change?


It is a bit of a mystery why the GOP establishment does some of what it does. However I've learned through experience that they seem to know what they're doing. Nothing meaningfully happens on the right without the McConnell types' blessing (for now, until populism takes hold better) and I think people will continue to be shocked as the Republicans continue figuring out how to win elections. I don't happen to think it will yield much of what I want, as today's R are the D from 5 years ago. It'll trigger some folks on here at least.

This post was edited by Nibthebarb on Jan 15 2022 10:45pm
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Jan 16 2022 12:42am
Quote (Nibthebarb @ Jan 15 2022 10:45pm)
It is a bit of a mystery why the GOP establishment does some of what it does. However I've learned through experience that they seem to know what they're doing. Nothing meaningfully happens on the right without the McConnell types' blessing (for now, until populism takes hold better) and I think people will continue to be shocked as the Republicans continue figuring out how to win elections. I don't happen to think it will yield much of what I want, as today's R are the D from 5 years ago. It'll trigger some folks on here at least.


:rofl:

You really do live in a fantasy land
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Jan 16 2022 12:45am
Quote (thundercock @ 16 Jan 2022 04:18)
Hispanics (and Arabs) were always considered white until recently.

I would argue that Arabs started being perceived a distinct group as early as after 9/11, but definitely since the European refugee crisis and the years-long spree of ISIS-inspired islamist terror attacks.

Quote
Hell, a majority of Hispanics IDENTIFIED as "white" in the 2010 census!

That's because your census distinguishes between race and the "hispanic" catetgory. Which makes sense since "hispanic" is not a race or ethnicity, but makes up a distinct sociocultural group in the U.S. context.

Quote
Also, we've done the math before and the effect that immigration has on the electorate is pretty small compared to other trends like the one in the OP.

That's because the impact of immigration on the electorate is rather slow. It takes time until a legal immigrant can apply for and finish naturalization. Likewise, it takes at least something like 20 years before illegals have children in the U.S. and these children reach voting age.
Yes, until now, the bigger problem for the GOP was their erosion with college-educated voters described in the OP. But the way Georgia went in 2020 was just a first glimpse into the electoral abyss for Republicans.


Quote
Republicans could EASILY get a vast majority of the immigrant demographic because they are overwhelmingly conservative.

I have to heavily disagree with this notion. Yes, latinos in particular hate abortion and tend to be more religious and all-around socially conservative than white liberals. But they also tend to be well to the left of conservative or even moderate whites on economic issues. Their catholic faith also doesn't necessarily mesh well with evangelicalism. The GOP could absolute win 40-45% of the latino vote with the right platform and sufficient effort though, which would stave off a lot of their acute as well as looming electoral challenges.

When it comes to other immigrants, the outlook for the GOP is more bleak imho. African immigrants (super successful, outperforming both US-born blacks and working-class whites, sad!) will always gravitate to the party that has the upper hand with US-born blacks. Indians and Chinese tend to be highly educated and working in big cities/the tech sector, they're natural Democrats. East and South East Asian people also tend to favor more collectivistic ethics and policies over the typical, American 'rugged individualism', so I expect them to be a Dem-leaning group even if the GOP genuinely tried to appeal to them.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 16 2022 12:48am
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Jan 16 2022 01:57am
College is where you go to be brainwashed and inundated with propaganda to get a useless degree that will barely help you in life unless it's in the STEM field.

You're also saddled with debt for potentially decades.



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