Quote (thundercock @ 16 Jan 2022 04:18)
Hispanics (and Arabs) were always considered white until recently.
I would argue that Arabs started being perceived a distinct group as early as after 9/11, but definitely since the European refugee crisis and the years-long spree of ISIS-inspired islamist terror attacks.
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Hell, a majority of Hispanics IDENTIFIED as "white" in the 2010 census!
That's because your census distinguishes between race and the "hispanic" catetgory. Which makes sense since "hispanic" is not a race or ethnicity, but makes up a distinct sociocultural group in the U.S. context.
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Also, we've done the math before and the effect that immigration has on the electorate is pretty small compared to other trends like the one in the OP.
That's because the impact of immigration on the
electorate is rather slow. It takes time until a legal immigrant can apply for and finish naturalization. Likewise, it takes at least something like 20 years before illegals have children in the U.S. and these children reach voting age.
Yes, until now, the bigger problem for the GOP was their erosion with college-educated voters described in the OP. But the way Georgia went in 2020 was just a first glimpse into the electoral abyss for Republicans.
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Republicans could EASILY get a vast majority of the immigrant demographic because they are overwhelmingly conservative.
I have to heavily disagree with this notion. Yes, latinos in particular hate abortion and tend to be more religious and all-around socially conservative than white liberals. But they also tend to be well to the left of conservative or even moderate whites on economic issues. Their catholic faith also doesn't necessarily mesh well with evangelicalism. The GOP could absolute win 40-45% of the latino vote with the right platform and sufficient effort though, which would stave off a lot of their acute as well as looming electoral challenges.
When it comes to other immigrants, the outlook for the GOP is more bleak imho. African immigrants (super successful, outperforming both US-born blacks and working-class whites, sad!) will always gravitate to the party that has the upper hand with US-born blacks. Indians and Chinese tend to be highly educated and working in big cities/the tech sector, they're natural Democrats. East and South East Asian people also tend to favor more collectivistic ethics and policies over the typical, American 'rugged individualism', so I expect them to be a Dem-leaning group even if the GOP genuinely tried to appeal to them.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 16 2022 12:48am