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Dec 21 2021 01:06am
Quote (EndlessSky @ Dec 21 2021 01:03am)
They are playing the long game for the agenda of their political Mafia group. The real plan is to make the population addicted to government spending. Demoralization by inverting the moral hierarchy of God.

They can always rebrand this as "Republicans are evil and want to ki** grandma"


I think the Democrats love losing and the game is rigged when both teams are on the take
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Dec 21 2021 01:15am
Quote (Goomshill @ Dec 20 2021 10:50pm)
Okay so I've been going over this build back better fiasco and there's one thing that sticks out to me

why, in god's name, did the Biden administration stake their branding on it?

Why is it called the 'Build back better plan'? Why did they brand it with Joe Biden's name, make it his signature policy, staple it to his forehead like martin luther nailing theses to a church door?
This seems to me to be clear unforced error and pure incompetence.
Think back to this summer, these dual track "infrastructure bill" and "social policy bill" didn't really have names or branding on them. Every pundit and politico was predicting the exact outcomes that came to pass, that one had enough bipartisan support to make it and the other didn't have backing from moderate democrats and would fail. Our only real question at that point is how much damage the progressives would inflict on their own party and drag down Biden, would they bend the knee or would they scuttle the infrastructure bill? Well, they bent the knee. They didn't even extract a single meaningful concession, let alone force a real showdown. But there was never any scenario where democrats passed this social bill, and we knew that back last summer. And yet, despite all clearly foreseeable demise of this agenda, Biden slapped his name all over it.

What was actually gained from staking any reputation on a bill that was clearly going to fail? In normal course of politics, administrations try to minimize their losses and pass the buck and hedge their bets. They don't board the already sinking ship, raise their flag on it, and then go down with the ship.
I really don't understand this move.


You're asking why Biden's branding is on Biden's bill? If it passes, he gets credit. If it fails, his administration is legislatively fucked anyway so there's only upside I think.

I don't think it's really dead, do you? There's still plenty of time before the midterms really start (we still don't know what the districts look like in many states). I still think that there's more likely to be SOMETHING rather than NOTHING coming out of budget reconciliation over the next year. I see two scenarios for the "something." Pass a fully funded CTC extension over 10 years or get a handful of things like universal pre-K, climate provisions, etc. It all depends on how the public reacts to the CTC going away.
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Dec 21 2021 01:17am
Goldman Sachs dropped 2022 growth predicted from 3 to 2% after news that bill BBB was dead this AM.
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Dec 21 2021 01:26am
Quote (Rushkovski @ Dec 21 2021 02:06am)
I think the Democrats love losing and the game is rigged when both teams are on the take



How so?
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Dec 21 2021 02:05am
Quote (thundercock @ Dec 21 2021 01:15am)
You're asking why Biden's branding is on Biden's bill? If it passes, he gets credit. If it fails, his administration is legislatively fucked anyway so there's only upside I think.

I don't think it's really dead, do you? There's still plenty of time before the midterms really start (we still don't know what the districts look like in many states). I still think that there's more likely to be SOMETHING rather than NOTHING coming out of budget reconciliation over the next year. I see two scenarios for the "something." Pass a fully funded CTC extension over 10 years or get a handful of things like universal pre-K, climate provisions, etc. It all depends on how the public reacts to the CTC going away.


In its current state BBB will do very little to revive mid term chances for Democrats.

Too many popular provisions have been cut and they've seen how Democrats can be stonewalled pretty easily from both sides. The ones who want Dems to win don't see a reason to turn out when that's the case.
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Dec 21 2021 02:18am
Quote (thundercock @ Dec 21 2021 01:15am)
You're asking why Biden's branding is on Biden's bill? If it passes, he gets credit. If it fails, his administration is legislatively fucked anyway so there's only upside I think.

I don't think it's really dead, do you? There's still plenty of time before the midterms really start (we still don't know what the districts look like in many states). I still think that there's more likely to be SOMETHING rather than NOTHING coming out of budget reconciliation over the next year. I see two scenarios for the "something." Pass a fully funded CTC extension over 10 years or get a handful of things like universal pre-K, climate provisions, etc. It all depends on how the public reacts to the CTC going away.


He's in office (or under it) until 2025, so why stick the BBB so hard in the year its guaranteed to fail? He had an easily embraced policy victory with the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Call it boring, but at least he'd have a notch on his belt if they took a victory lap on that and wrote off the social bill, it wouldn't look like he's legislatively fucked. Yes, he's still got the same supposed opportunity for a party-line reconciliation next year, but that's the same opportunity they had this year and with the same congress. I don't see why it would turn out any different. Now his accomplishments are being overshadowed by his failures, because he staked his name onto the latter.

There are people trying to credit this to some kind of weird intentional strategy where Biden is taking the lumps for the team or whatever. Like how I speculated Trump was really just a sideshow candidate to draw fire away from Marco Rubio. About as accurate, I think. Democrats are going into the midterms looking like they cannot govern, and Republicans are going to give them a shellacking on that. As if they aren't already weak enough on enough fronts. Digging Biden deeper is going to hurt everyone downticket even when he's not on the ticket.
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Dec 21 2021 06:36am
Quote (Goomshill @ 21 Dec 2021 09:18)
He's in office (or under it) until 2025, so why stick the BBB so hard in the year its guaranteed to fail? He had an easily embraced policy victory with the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Call it boring, but at least he'd have a notch on his belt if they took a victory lap on that and wrote off the social bill, it wouldn't look like he's legislatively fucked. Yes, he's still got the same supposed opportunity for a party-line reconciliation next year, but that's the same opportunity they had this year and with the same congress. I don't see why it would turn out any different. Now his accomplishments are being overshadowed by his failures, because he staked his name onto the latter.

There are people trying to credit this to some kind of weird intentional strategy where Biden is taking the lumps for the team or whatever. Like how I speculated Trump was really just a sideshow candidate to draw fire away from Marco Rubio. About as accurate, I think. Democrats are going into the midterms looking like they cannot govern, and Republicans are going to give them a shellacking on that. As if they aren't already weak enough on enough fronts. Digging Biden deeper is going to hurt everyone downticket even when he's not on the ticket.


I think both your questions are answered by intra-party calculus and ambitions for personal legacy. Biden kept pushing the social spending bill because he knew that the progressive caucus would revolt and derail the rest of his presidency if he didn't at least try to pass the bill which contains their priorities. I also believe that he genuinely thinks he has a mandate to enact big sweeping change and wants to go down in history as not just a transitional president but as a figure who changed the trajectory of the country. Attaching his personal slogan to the bill imho was intended to put pressure on senators like Manchin and Sinema. Biden and his team probably thought that in the end, after lots of bargaining and showboating, grandstanding and bluster, no senator would have the guts to kill THE signature bill of his own party's president.




I agree with thundercock by the way: this is not the end for any kind of legislation, it's just the end for the approach of ramming through a humongous, all-encompassing bill which is several-thousand-pages long and costing trillions of dollars. Like others have pointed out, BBB actually contained quite a few provisions which were very popular. I believe that Dems will try to repackage these (and only these) provisions in a new, more modest bill next year and try to get that passed before the midterms. Which might be better politics than ramming through BBB anyway.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 21 2021 06:38am
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Dec 21 2021 08:57am
Quote (chopstickz777 @ Dec 20 2021 10:07pm)
This is what I get for trying to engage in a good faith discussion with you. You misdirect & deflect while attacking the source.

"Your sources don't count because I don't like them! Wahhh!"

Of course.



Your sources were shit and didn’t support your point. It isn’t about if people like the sources, it’s that you were completely wrong. Wahh!
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Dec 21 2021 09:02am
Good, only thing that would make this better is if Sinema follows in kind. They’ve already spent the $1.2T or whetever the (D)s passed with the help of RINOs on special interests and pork barrel. maybe a road or two got their potholes filled in the process
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Dec 21 2021 10:40am
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Dec 21 2021 12:05am)
In its current state BBB will do very little to revive mid term chances for Democrats.

Too many popular provisions have been cut and they've seen how Democrats can be stonewalled pretty easily from both sides. The ones who want Dems to win don't see a reason to turn out when that's the case.


I've always been baffled by that. You don't get what you want after 2 years so you punish your side and make it harder to pass your agenda? Young people should see just how much has changed between administrations and be motivated to push the Democrats further and make Manchin irrelevant. Republicans have been trying to get Roe overturned for 50 fucking years and now they are likely to see the fruits of their labor. They didn't quit just because Carter became President lol.
Quote (Goomshill @ Dec 21 2021 12:18am)
He's in office (or under it) until 2025, so why stick the BBB so hard in the year its guaranteed to fail? He had an easily embraced policy victory with the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Call it boring, but at least he'd have a notch on his belt if they took a victory lap on that and wrote off the social bill, it wouldn't look like he's legislatively fucked. Yes, he's still got the same supposed opportunity for a party-line reconciliation next year, but that's the same opportunity they had this year and with the same congress. I don't see why it would turn out any different. Now his accomplishments are being overshadowed by his failures, because he staked his name onto the latter.

There are people trying to credit this to some kind of weird intentional strategy where Biden is taking the lumps for the team or whatever. Like how I speculated Trump was really just a sideshow candidate to draw fire away from Marco Rubio. About as accurate, I think. Democrats are going into the midterms looking like they cannot govern, and Republicans are going to give them a shellacking on that. As if they aren't already weak enough on enough fronts. Digging Biden deeper is going to hurt everyone downticket even when he's not on the ticket.


C'mon man! You've been around the block long enough to know that Republicans are very likely to take the House and are slight favorites to take the Senate. Once that happens, Biden's legislative agenda is dead and he'll be able to MAYBE work on some sort of childcare program with folks like Rubio and Romney (~20% chance). He MUST try to get the left parts of his agenda passed because he's going to be forced to pivot center in the near future. I agree that Biden should be taking a victory lap but progressives are greedier than the most covetous Jew. They couldn't care less about infrastructure that has a tangible affect on our lives. Anything less than a 6 quadrillion dollar bill won't appease them. Anyway, it's back to the drawing board and the bill is going to be trimmed further to make it more palatable (or a vote will be forced and Manchin will cave).
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