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#61
Nov 2 2020 04:59am
Quote (Handcuffs @ Nov 1 2020 09:42pm)
I don't think it's by design or intention, but merely the coincidental result. Trump supporters aren't as active and involved with polling groups and generally have a negative view of polls/the media at-large. I think it's part of their "Silent Majority" mantra.



The thing is too is that several of the polls seek to create insight into national voting trends which mean absolutely nothing. The only thing that matters is a select handful of swing states due to the shitty Electoral College. This election all eyes are on PA, WI, AZ, GA, and FL. TX is there too, but it's not as likely to go blue this year.


This morning, 538 has FL at Biden +6 with a 2% margin of error. Even if Trump picked up PA, WI, AZ, and GA, he would still need to pick off both MN and IA, or NC to cross 270.
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#62
Nov 2 2020 05:01am
Prediction:

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#63
Nov 2 2020 05:43am
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#64
Nov 2 2020 06:54am






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#65
Nov 2 2020 01:47pm
Quote
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/


Latest polls.

It will be interesting to see how the early vote impacts the result. IBD/TIPP is showing a much tighter race than a week ago from a popular vote point of view. If the reality is anything like that, Biden is in trouble.

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#66
Nov 2 2020 01:49pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Nov 2 2020 11:47am)
Latest polls.

It will be interesting to see how the early vote impacts the result. IBD/TIPP is showing a much tighter race than a week ago from a popular vote point of view. If the reality is anything like that, Biden is in trouble.


My biggest concern is polling average discrepancy. If all the aggregates show something different, people are going to accuse them of being biased, shitty aggregators, etc. At the end of the day, if the aggregators are different, that implies a lot of volatility and you should take that into account.
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#67
Nov 2 2020 01:55pm
Quote (Ghot @ 2 Nov 2020 13:54)
https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/an4rBK0_460svvp9.webm


"That's what i do" :lol:
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#68
Nov 2 2020 02:03pm
I've written lengthy posts about this 2020 phenomenom: pollsters being so far apart, and with several "clusters" of polls around the edge of the predicted range (as opposed to an unimodal distribution clustered around the middle of the polling range, with very few outliers, that we would expect under normality assumptions) that someone necessarily has to be way off. The huge spread between the polls that we're seeing this year cant be explained with sampling error or minor methodological choices - someone has to be fundamentally wrong.

Quote (Santara @ 2 Nov 2020 11:59)
This morning, 538 has FL at Biden +6 with a 2% margin of error. Even if Trump picked up PA, WI, AZ, and GA, he would still need to pick off both MN and IA, or NC to cross 270.


The average shows Biden up by 2.4% in Florida, not 6. There was a single Emerson poll (rated A-) yesterday which showed Biden up by 6. The same day, ABC News/Washington post ( an A+ rated pollster) had Trump up by 2.
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#69
Nov 2 2020 02:16pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 2 2020 12:03pm)
I've written lengthy posts about this 2020 phenomenom: pollsters being so far apart, and with several "clusters" of polls around the edge of the predicted range (as opposed to an unimodal distribution clustered around the middle of the polling range, with very few outliers, that we would expect under normality assumptions) that someone necessarily has to be way off. The huge spread between the polls that we're seeing this year cant be explained with sampling error or minor methodological choices - someone has to be fundamentally wrong.



The average shows Biden up by 2.4% in Florida, not 6. There was a single Emerson poll (rated A-) yesterday which showed Biden up by 6. The same day, ABC News/Washington post ( an A+ rated pollster) had Trump up by 2.


How could it not be the Trafalgars of the world? They have Trump winning 28% of the BLACK VOTE in MICHIGAN. He won 6% in 2016! Granted, I suppose it's possible and if it DOES happen we're just going to be stuck with a stupid narrative "the polls were wrong." Well yes, but they would be wrong for COMPLETELY different reasons than 2016.
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#70
Nov 2 2020 02:31pm
Quote (thundercock @ 2 Nov 2020 21:16)
How could it not be the Trafalgars of the world? They have Trump winning 28% of the BLACK VOTE in MICHIGAN. He won 6% in 2016! Granted, I suppose it's possible and if it DOES happen we're just going to be stuck with a stupid narrative "the polls were wrong." Well yes, but they would be wrong for COMPLETELY different reasons than 2016.


Even among top tier pollsters, there's a big spread this year. I am not talking about the Trafalgars, Rasmussens or PPPs, I'm talking about Emerson, Quinnipiac, NYT/Sienna, IBD/TTIP, etc. All pollsters with a rating of B+ or higher.

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