Quote (Goomshill @ 3 Dec 2019 22:48)
its a bit more than just offering a deal. Its what was being offered; Trump offering up incredible concessions on unthinkable issues that would have been a direct betrayal of his base, like potential amnesty.
Either side can claim they had a 'deal', but the democrat's 'deal' was like a 100-1 trade of benefits, asking for absurd amounts of amnesty and federal benefits for illegals and foreign aid in exchange for just pennies on the dollar in wall spending. That wasn't a serious offer, just a talking point. But Trump's "4 pillar" deal strategy would have been a huge swap of critical issues: Reforming to merit-based immigration / ending chain migration / ending the visa lottery / building a wall in exchange for amnesty for DACA illegals, a pathway to citizenship, TPS made permanent and foreign aid. That was the grand bargain that was shot down by the democrats who wouldn't even talk about it, then he went for a more piecemeal and less ambitious swaps of DACA for funding and they shot that down too.
Its true that Trump was seeking bold compromises that would have given up his sacred cow issues that could have let to his base rebelling, while Democrats were stonewalling with zero compromise what-so-fucking-ever. But when it came to talking points and posturing both sides could claim they had a deal the other side was opposing and the other side was at fault for the shutdown.
Have any politicians in recent memory made such dramatic compromise gambits as Trump's offer on immigration? It would be like if just after Bush got elected by the social conservatives, he offered up a deal to democrats to legalize gay marriage, let gays serve in the military, recognize gender identity and legalize marijuana in exchange for religious exemptions on regulations and healthcare, permanent tax cuts and expanded arctic drilling or whatever else he had on his wishlist. Because the people who elected Trump sure as hell weren't clamoring for amnesty for DACA illegals, but like Nixon going to China only Trump could sell such a deal. Except I guess in this scenario, it would also be like the democrats turned around and shut down Bush's offer and responded with their own counterproposal for federally funded sex reassignment surgery for 8 year olds and legalizing all narcotics in exchange for 1 new oil well in the arctic
Polls consistently show that between 70 and 88% of respondents support allowing the Dreamers to stay, in most polls even combined with an (eventual) pathway to citizenship. So this has to include quite a substantial amount of people who voted for Trump in 2016.
It's not surprising either, the Dreamers are by far the most promising and sympathetic subgroup among illegal aliens.
So yes, the hard core of Trump's base would have been pissed about such a tradeoff. But I think the majority of his voters would have supported such a deal, would have understood that shifting legal immigration to a merit-based system, ending birthright citizenship, ending chain migration and getting the wall funded is by faaaaar outweighing amnesty for around 2-3m people who have a high expected future value to society anyway. (Young, socialized and schooled in America, have their best earning years ahead of them.)
From the perspective of smart immigration hawks, such a deal would have been AMAZING. Which is exactly why the Democrats shot it down. What really killed Trump's strategy on the wall and the government shutdown is that the courts blocked him from ending DACA. If Trump in the winter of 17/18 had been able to threaten with
credibility to deport the Dreamers, the Dems might have been forced to accept his 4 pillars deal. But then the courts cockblocked him, and all of a sudden, he stood there shutting the government down with zero leverage and looked like an idiot.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 4 2019 11:16am