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Jul 20 2018 08:33pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 20 2018 10:27pm)
you know what the problem with hypotheticals is?

I mean, we have proof that Hillary/DNC actually did collude with the Ukraine (manafort ledger), and proof she/they colluded with Russian sources (steele dossier), both with the purpose of influencing the election. Heck the FEC even fined Bernie for colluding with a foreign government and it didn't even make the papers. And here we are two years of wild accusations against Trump later and it looks further than ever that any actual knowing collusion took place. Yet you still want to deal in the hypothetical. You can use hypothetical scenarios to debunk claims and identify the weaknesses of theories, but they're all too spurious when you want to construct one in the absence of evidence. Take the hypothetical case where Putin did have kompromat on Trump and did collude with him. In that scenario, you have to come up with rational explanations for why Putin would never deploy his kompromat even after years of Trump pooping all over Russia. 3 rounds of sanctions, 2 rounds of tomahawks on assad, blowing up 200 russians in battle, sending lethal arms like patriot missiles to ukraine and poland ($200 million more released just today), undermining his energy leverage with LNG shipments and opposing nord stream 2, denouncing him on skripal and election hacking, ejecting diplomats, closing consulates, etc etc etc etc. Such a theory needs to explain how all that can happen and Putin did not use his leverage to stop it. You can't keep rationalizing every action as a false flag gambit, then its nothing but tinfoil nuttery. Also, you must rationalize the theory by figuring out how it all managed to stay secret this long. With every journalist in the western hemisphere digging desperately to try to find collusion, and an intelligence community so leaky that the public gets to know what Trump eats for breakfast, there's no way such a conspiracy could be kept hidden for so long. Same problem as the 9/11 crackpots, Maddox had a good piece on debunking conspiracies back when everyone screaming about it now was in diapers.

It reeks of desperation when the best the anti-Trump conspiracy theorists can hope for at this point is the kind of offense that is either not illegal, or an FEC violation that's normally punished with a slap on the wrist, minor fine and sending kids on their way.
People want to believe in conspiracies. People would rather delegitimize their opposition than address their arguments. Our political discourse is all about impugning motives on a scale never seen before in American politics, not even prior to the civil war when ideologues at least did each other the service of acknowledging the contrasting views as they spat upon one another and beat them with canes.


Its a deep hatred of conservatives masked as whatever legitimization they make up at the time.
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Jul 20 2018 08:40pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 20 Jul 2018 22:27)
It reeks of desperation when the best the anti-Trump conspiracy theorists can hope for at this point is the kind of offense that is either not illegal, or an FEC violation that's normally punished with a slap on the wrist, minor fine and sending kids on their way.
People want to believe in conspiracies. People would rather delegitimize their opposition than address their arguments.

proud to deliver


lol this. its what happens when a large group of privileged people rally behind a candidate who loses to an orange chad that said privileged people called an incapable idiot with no path to winning for the entire election process.
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Jul 20 2018 09:23pm
This is a good question. We've had the discussion in many forms, but it's refreshing to see a new topic so we can we can properly reassess the issue and use it for reference.

I think we are past the point of no return. Short of a pee tape, I don't foresee anything that Mueller could put out there that will result in Trump leaving office.

Trump has successfully politicized this issue and framed the debate. He's created a binary outcome for the Special Counsel: collusion or no collusion. He knows the bar to meet collusion is very high, so he uses the term at every opportunity.

In reality, the Special Counsel is probably looking at a wide variety of criminality, ranging from obstruction of justice to conspiracy to defraud the US. But Trump and the media have everyone focused on only the most scandalous possibility - collusion.

I think that even if traceable and direct Trump-Russia collusion occurred, which is unlikely, Trump supporters and Republicans would find a way to either delegitimize the findings and/or the investigators, say he was not aware of the wrongdoing, or say the wrongdoing does not rise to the level of impeachment.

Ultimately, Trump has too much unwavering Republican voter support. His approval rating with Republicans is 90% right now, per Gallup. This amount of approval essentially ties the hands of Congressional Republicans to hold him accountable, lest they want to face the wrath of Trump and his extremely loyal base.

Trump's supporters' opinions often do not change in the face of evolving information. The media and Democrats have sensationalized aspects of the case and has overplayed their hand at times, lending all the credibility his supporters need to dismiss new information.


Tl;dr: I think we are past the point of no return. I can't see many situations where most Trump's supporters would care enough to consider new information or hold Trump accountable for any actions he did or did not take.
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Jul 20 2018 09:32pm
Well no more than any base holds their head honcho accountable.

/e Excellent summation btw.

This post was edited by Ghot on Jul 20 2018 09:32pm
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Jul 20 2018 09:32pm
I just think its telling. Our country could be having a spirited debate of the pros and cons of progressivism vs neoliberalism/neoconservatism vs populism vs libertarianism. It could be a debate over whether universal healthcare is actually feasible if it requires a nationalization of the entire industry and restructuring at all levels, it could be a debate about the proper balance of protectionism vs free trade and how far the positive sum vs zero sum game theory is applicable. It could be a debate over how we can humanely protect our borders and maintain our sovereignty and identity. But no, everything I just mentioned is little more than given lip service by politicians who just obliquely reference the issues, post a blurb on their campaign websites and then completely ignore it when engaging their opponents. Because instead the 'debate' is whether Hillary killed Seth Rich or whether Trump is colluding with Russia. We should be debating how America can maneuver geopolitically to rival the ascendant China. We should be debating both how we leverage our relationship with Russia to maintain our #1 superpower status. We should be seeking to exploit China's upcoming grey dawn as their age bubble bursts and they struggle to maintain stability and not balkanize. But no, instead, every diplomatic maneuver by Trump must be viewed through the lens of "MUH COLLUSION"

MiceAge thinks the issue is in the answer to his question, but the issue is that he's asking the question at all.
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Jul 20 2018 09:33pm
I just see more whataboutisms.
Dunno how many times i have to say hillary doing bad shit does not condone trump doing bad shit.
Hillary belongs in prison.
Trump belongs in prison.
Bernie belongs in the oval office.
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Jul 20 2018 09:34pm
Let's just hope the US is upgrading their offenses and defenses, while all this politobull is going on.


/e make no mistake. Russia wants our balls in a vice for dissembling the USSR. Last I heard they can now hit the US via a south pole trajectory.

This post was edited by Ghot on Jul 20 2018 09:39pm
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Jul 20 2018 09:42pm
Quote (Ghot @ Jul 20 2018 08:34pm)
Let's just hope the US is upgrading their offenses and defenses, while all this politobull is going on.


/e make no mistake. Russia wants our balls in a vice for dissembling the USSR. Last I heard they can now hit the US via a south pole trajectory.


been a lot of south pole trajectory going on between Trump and Putin lately that's for sure
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Jul 21 2018 07:28am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Jul 20 2018 08:20pm)
You keep using the word conspiracy without defining it. If Trump had knowledge of what exactly? That the Russians favored him over her? That they hacked the DNC?

The GRU can come out tomorrow and tell us that they hacked the DNC and exposed the corruption to damage Hillary and i would shake their hand and applaud them for it. Even if Trump knew during the election that the Russians were doing this i don't care. It's no holds barred battle of political interests and the neocons lost, at least temporarily. As a paleoconservative i'm very happy we are taking a more isolationist, more pacifist role in the world. Fuck the neocons that want to spend tax dollars projecting power across the globe, we're 6 trillion in the red between Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria i'm extremely satisfied with Trumps handling of foreign policy.


One example would be Trump's campaign accepting the DNC analytics that were stolen. There are numerous other possibilities that one could come up with.

Stealing DNC emails and giving them to Wikileaks was only one aspect of the attack. I understand you are glad Russia did that, which is insane to me. Are you in favor of all the other things Russia did? Like hacking Podesta's emails? Or the actions the Internet Research Agency took?

I think this is the problem with taking your position... in 2020 China could easily interfere even more than Russia did in 2016... and they would favor the Democratic candidate for obvious reasons. Do you want every American election to be subject to attacks by foreign adversaries? Also not sure why you would shake the hands of GRU officers for doing this... are you naive enough to think they did this for benevolent reasons? I can't even imagine the content of the RNC emails they stole... probably tons of examples of people trying to figure out how to stop Trump from becoming the nominee.

Uhhh... Trump's increasing the military budget to 700+ billion dollars. Like you've said, he's been tough on Russia in many ways policy wise. He's filled his cabinet with hawks. We're still in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and many other countries fighting terrorist groups. Not exactly a Pat Buchanan or Ron Paul isolationism.
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Jul 21 2018 07:37am
Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 20 2018 10:32pm)
I just think its telling. Our country could be having a spirited debate of the pros and cons of progressivism vs neoliberalism/neoconservatism vs populism vs libertarianism. It could be a debate over whether universal healthcare is actually feasible if it requires a nationalization of the entire industry and restructuring at all levels, it could be a debate about the proper balance of protectionism vs free trade and how far the positive sum vs zero sum game theory is applicable. It could be a debate over how we can humanely protect our borders and maintain our sovereignty and identity. But no, everything I just mentioned is little more than given lip service by politicians who just obliquely reference the issues, post a blurb on their campaign websites and then completely ignore it when engaging their opponents. Because instead the 'debate' is whether Hillary killed Seth Rich or whether Trump is colluding with Russia. We should be debating how America can maneuver geopolitically to rival the ascendant China. We should be debating both how we leverage our relationship with Russia to maintain our #1 superpower status. We should be seeking to exploit China's upcoming grey dawn as their age bubble bursts and they struggle to maintain stability and not balkanize. But no, instead, every diplomatic maneuver by Trump must be viewed through the lens of "MUH COLLUSION"

MiceAge thinks the issue is in the answer to his question, but the issue is that he's asking the question at all.


Ah yes... before the days of Russiagate, all of us Americans had informed, nuanced debate about important political topics. That's why Fox News, Breitbart, and MSNBC only gained popularity post-November 2016. That's why Trump got elected of course, because he's the poster child of nuanced, knowledgeable discussion of policy.

Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 20 2018 09:27pm)
you know what the problem with hypotheticals is?

tldr


Quote (IceMage @ Jul 20 2018 12:38pm)
Goom will deflect and minimize without answering the question.


Thank you.

This post was edited by IceMage on Jul 21 2018 07:37am
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