Quote (NatureNames @ Apr 24 2014 12:59pm)
maybe I'm crazy or stupid but i really haven't seen a likelihood of Clinton actually being able to win. if i can deduce this from my meager knowledge, than so can the democratic party. all the rumors and speculation for the past 2 years hasn't been good. i really think if they pick Clinton they will lose for sure.
She has the widest path to the presidency of any non-incumbent since Eisenhower. There haven't been any "rumors" or "speculation" that have hurt her. She is a terrifyingly-powerful candidate, and possibly the only one in the country who wouldn't have to deal with the burden of trying to win "the 9th year" for his or her party. Even at the nadir of Democratic popularity last December, most if not all of the unpopularity circling around Obama or even the party brand was not bringing Clinton's numbers down a meaningful amount.
Quote (bogie160 @ Apr 24 2014 02:27pm)
Jeb Bush is the only candidate with the inherent prestige to avoid a "flight to the right" during the primary. He offers real solutions to immigration and education, and promotes a pretty generic muscular foreign policy.
Bush
already tried to make that "flight to the right" during the invisible primary in hopes of making it an easier proposition later, he's just so god damn bad at it that he wasn't been able to pull it off. He tried it last year around the launch of his book pulling off the rare flip-flop-flip on immigration in a span of a week. He doesn't even have a lead in the primary, either in primary polling, campaign infrastructure, or state-specific support. No one that's stuck in that big bundle of candidates with 5%-15% support has the prestige to avoid anything.