chinese Imports from the USA are indeed decreasing somewhat in recent years post covid.

chinese exports are not. so going back to my post if the USA decides to forgo trade with China, even if they're self reliant and they get the $150b import total all they way down to zero, what will they do if the USA takes its $400b elsewhere?

china making itself import self reliant accounts for only about 25% of the total trade landscape. they export 3x to the US what they import.

Not sure how this contradicts anything I've said.

Typically if 1 group has significantly more to lose than the other its on them to avoid conflict.

if a full blown trade war happens the US might see a new regime get voted in in 2028, in china they'd likely face revolution they'd have to violently put down or lose power.

china is the teenage son that has decided he can finally kick his dad's ass, and china is dead wrong.

By a show of hands:

Does anyone here believe that the US will go toe-to-toe against china over Taiwan? This isnt 2004 anymore; the Chinese have caught up (and in some cases surpassed) the US in shipbuilding, fighter jets produced, missile technology, and especially drone manufacturing.

The best bet Uncle Sam had was imposing a naval blockade in the south china sea and starving the chinese, but as we have all learned from the houthis in the red sea, that is no longer a possibility. Once the states get their chip manufacturing operating in Arizona, Taiwan is completely fucked.

The chinese are starting to test the waters as well:

China’s maritime movements around Taiwan are largest in decades, Taipei says
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/10/china/china-taiwan-maritime-movements-intl-hnk/index.html

I think that's a naive way of looking at the world. America has to deal with the world as it is, not how it could or should be. And it's in our interest to maintain our economic relationship with China because to do otherwise would have bad results with virtually zero benefits.

I think we should, but I don't think we will. Voters do not care at all about Taiwan or the US led global order.

i agree and disagree. china knows it would lose, so if we impose a new paradigm we may be able to get concessions without bearing the harsh consequences. status quo governance from both parties has given china too much freedom to take advantage of us. and we of course take advantage of their cheap labor and harsh working conditions. its not a case where they're fleecing us entirely with no recourse. but if we're in a world where the chinese govt is buying up our farming industry to feed themselves so we're just a way station for goods while they reverse engineer everything from mechanical parts to weapons systems, well its time to try and curb their most egregious behavior. as they're edging towards economic issues the time is now, they're even more likely to act than they would be in a stronger position.

Xi wants his legacy in China to be the invasion and annexation of Taiwan.

The last remnants of the original Chinese revolution lie there with Chiang Kai Shek. It would be the jewel in his crown if Xi could successfully annex it.

IMO China could have done it years ago, so international pressure may be the only thing holding him back. Either that, or he is waiting for a major disaster in the USA to disrupt communications before performing the act. Under Trump, there would definitely be a confrontation between the US and China.

That said, hopefully the Chinese give up on that goal. Would be safer for all.

Never gonna happen. If USA decoupled from China then everyone would cry like babies about what stuff really costs.

T: hey guys, vote for me ! grocery prices are way too damn high! have you seen the price of eggs???

also T: