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Aug 29 2023 01:43pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Aug 29 2023 01:21pm)
that's absurd. like saying shoving a gallon of vodka down your throat is a good beta test for responsible drinking.

to use your example: i'm not talking about operating on a patient before knowing it's garnered. i'm talking about doing xrays now, taking blood tests, then doing the absolute minimal once it proves necessary. i even gave an example of a factory that employs most of a town closing down as a chance to swoop in like disaster relief.

but hey, just picture a future when it is needed. the year is 2043, we've waited until this day to act. the president tries to enacy policy via executive order, it's shot down by legal challenge. it then goes to congress, they deliberate for 6 months, come up with almost nothing and the president vetoes. it goes back. finally an Obamacare type heavily lobbied plan clears vote, and gets put into law. and it goes just about as well as obamacare did.

we dont need UBI now, we need plans and structure, THEN and only then we'll need a beta test.


I don't really understand what exactly you're suggesting. What are the plans and structures? That's not really how governments work. Most of the time they are responsive not pro-active. We have so many pressing issues today that to expect them to come together and put something together for when AI/Machines automate large swaths of current jobs is not really feasible.

I listen to podcasts, mostly finance/tech focused. The big thing right now is AI. Many of these experts talk and mention the industries that may be most impacted but pretty much all of them acknowledge they have no idea how all of this will pan out. And these are experts in the field. Like the range of outcomes is canyon wide, this could be just a 'helper' like Alexa like tool amplified or it may mean futuristic, machines do 80% of the work future. So to expect bureaucrats to somehow come up with even half accurate projections for example on what % of workers will be displaced by AI, or how much AI will increase productivity is a damn near impossible task right now. You can't create departments or allocate tons of capital to things that are this uncertain. I mean you can, but it may be a complete waste because trying to predict how tech will change the world is a laughably hard task.

Creating some committee to investigate and study it is one thing, and maybe that's not so bad, maybe i'm just mis-understanding what you actually mean by structures.
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Aug 29 2023 02:19pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Aug 29 2023 02:43pm)
I don't really understand what exactly you're suggesting. What are the plans and structures? That's not really how governments work. Most of the time they are responsive not pro-active. We have so many pressing issues today that to expect them to come together and put something together for when AI/Machines automate large swaths of current jobs is not really feasible.

I listen to podcasts, mostly finance/tech focused. The big thing right now is AI. Many of these experts talk and mention the industries that may be most impacted but pretty much all of them acknowledge they have no idea how all of this will pan out. And these are experts in the field. Like the range of outcomes is canyon wide, this could be just a 'helper' like Alexa like tool amplified or it may mean futuristic, machines do 80% of the work future. So to expect bureaucrats to somehow come up with even half accurate projections for example on what % of workers will be displaced by AI, or how much AI will increase productivity is a damn near impossible task right now. You can't create departments or allocate tons of capital to things that are this uncertain. I mean you can, but it may be a complete waste because trying to predict how tech will change the world is a laughably hard task.

Creating some committee to investigate and study it is one thing, and maybe that's not so bad, maybe i'm just mis-understanding what you actually mean by structures.


creating a bipartisan committee is exactly the kind of start i'm suggesting. but there are two topics here that are often conflated, AI vs Automation. they're related, but not the same. on the topic of AI i agree, its very hard to forecast the impact. on the topic of automation that's not hard at all, we have mountains of data to use.

the outsourcing and/or automation of manual labor factory work tore a hole in communities nationwide. this wasn't some event that took place in the 1990s under Clinton like some pundits want you to believe, nor has it stopped. it's continued and will continue. i regularly design entire factories that used to employ hundreds of people per shift that now employ 1 dozen people per shift, and they're more efficient AND productive. this will continue to happen. manual labor has a death sentence hanging over it's head measured in a few decades, it's likely the greatest bipartisan in effect disaster this country has faced since the great depression. only this time we're unlikely to have the option of wide sweeping unconstitutional fixes to pull us out.

i can tell you what we need, but it's fruitless. without a few years of bipartisan reports presented from committee to open floor congress no one will even believe it. the alarm was sounded in 2016 by Yang, and what progress have we made? have we done literally anything at all? the impending crisis will make the social security crises look like nothing, and the effects will shake the world economy. but both sides want to pretend all is fine, that people who can't work are either disabled transgender veterans or lazy fucks who need to go back to work.

ive personally been talking about this for 10 years, now im just gonna wait to watch the children of those who didn't listen become slaves to a meat grinder. we laughed when we watched Wall-E, but that will prove to be eerily accurate in the long run. not for me, or my family, we've got hundreds of acres, precious metals, and the ability to produce our own livelihood. i dont need UBI, never will, nor anyone hopefully in my family line. we're 10-15 years past the point of no return, no feasible tax on automation will ever feed the UBI pool needed in a few decades, let alone 100 years. we'll sell our own govt to the corporate monopolies just to get enough food vouchers to not starve. its far too late now, and i cant even get people to accept the idea that we need a minimal sheltered pool tax.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Aug 29 2023 02:19pm
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Aug 29 2023 02:42pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Aug 29 2023 04:19pm)
creating a bipartisan committee is exactly the kind of start i'm suggesting. but there are two topics here that are often conflated, AI vs Automation. they're related, but not the same. on the topic of AI i agree, its very hard to forecast the impact. on the topic of automation that's not hard at all, we have mountains of data to use.

the outsourcing and/or automation of manual labor factory work tore a hole in communities nationwide. this wasn't some event that took place in the 1990s under Clinton like some pundits want you to believe, nor has it stopped. it's continued and will continue. i regularly design entire factories that used to employ hundreds of people per shift that now employ 1 dozen people per shift, and they're more efficient AND productive. this will continue to happen. manual labor has a death sentence hanging over it's head measured in a few decades, it's likely the greatest bipartisan in effect disaster this country has faced since the great depression. only this time we're unlikely to have the option of wide sweeping unconstitutional fixes to pull us out.

i can tell you what we need, but it's fruitless. without a few years of bipartisan reports presented from committee to open floor congress no one will even believe it. the alarm was sounded in 2016 by Yang, and what progress have we made? have we done literally anything at all? the impending crisis will make the social security crises look like nothing, and the effects will shake the world economy. but both sides want to pretend all is fine, that people who can't work are either disabled transgender veterans or lazy fucks who need to go back to work.

ive personally been talking about this for 10 years, now im just gonna wait to watch the children of those who didn't listen become slaves to a meat grinder. we laughed when we watched Wall-E, but that will prove to be eerily accurate in the long run. not for me, or my family, we've got hundreds of acres, precious metals, and the ability to produce our own livelihood. i dont need UBI, never will, nor anyone hopefully in my family line. we're 10-15 years past the point of no return, no feasible tax on automation will ever feed the UBI pool needed in a few decades, let alone 100 years. we'll sell our own govt to the corporate monopolies just to get enough food vouchers to not starve. its far too late now, and i cant even get people to accept the idea that we need a minimal sheltered pool tax.


The problem with being a company that owns everything when people have nothing is pretty obvious in the historical record. By the same token, I'd be worried about keeping your hundreds of acres safe from the government's prying hands. You're going to need a fully armed clan in 50 years time, get cracking.
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Aug 30 2023 03:45am
The idea you can challenge any government in a fight is laughable.
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Aug 30 2023 04:17am
Quote (Vastet @ Aug 30 2023 07:45pm)
The idea you can challenge any government in a fight is laughable.


I mean it happens literally all the time but go off.
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Aug 30 2023 07:13am
Quote (Vastet @ Aug 30 2023 05:45am)
The idea you can challenge any government in a fight is laughable.


A bunch of tribal yahoos with AKs successfully overthrew a regime backed by the foremost military power on earth.

Some other notable examples...
1917 Russian Revolution
1918 German Revolution
Liberation of Yugoslavia circa 1944-1945
1979 Iranian revolution
1991 Collapse of the Soviet Union
1994 Collapse of South African apartheid

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Aug 30 2023 08:14am
Quote (bogie160 @ Aug 29 2023 03:42pm)
The problem with being a company that owns everything when people have nothing is pretty obvious in the historical record. By the same token, I'd be worried about keeping your hundreds of acres safe from the government's prying hands. You're going to need a fully armed clan in 50 years time, get cracking.


it's a massive problem for the capitalist state we've created. the snake coils and eats itself. we know automation has and will continue to eat entire sectors of laborers. those laborers were and continue to be replaced by operators. operators have been and will continue to be replaced by fully automated systems that require no operators. this is how a 1980s factor floor that had 100 people working on it today can produce far more per hour with only 1-2 people who really just babysit machines and clear jams in the lines.

and then we move into non-physical labor, that's the answer of the capitalists from the 1990s when automation first started to tear a hole into the american labor pool. the dot com boom, ecommerce, cnc operation, etc. these are beginning to fall to AI along the same pattern. 10 people become 5 with machine help, becomes 2, becomes 1.

the easy answer is "new jobs, jobs we cant even dream up yet" or worse yet "the trades, we'll always need tradesman". we can only have so many plumbers, 5 star chefs, and teachers. its hard to imagine a world run by AI and automation that a whole new class of employment will be created to combat the forecasted job loss of the future. coders today use chat gpt, healthcare providers look to automated tools to boost their effectiveness, restaurants are automating, etc.

as to our land, we've got the guns, working on the armed clan now.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Aug 30 2023 08:15am
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Aug 31 2023 06:08am
Quote (bogie160 @ 30 Aug 2023 09:13)
A bunch of tribal yahoos with AKs successfully overthrew a regime backed by the foremost military power on earth.

Some other notable examples...
1917 Russian Revolution
1918 German Revolution
Liberation of Yugoslavia circa 1944-1945
1979 Iranian revolution
1991 Collapse of the Soviet Union
1994 Collapse of South African apartheid


The foremost military power on Earth didn't care enough. The day the least powerful government cares enough you get wiped out and never even know what hit you.
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Aug 31 2023 06:13am
Quote (Plaguefear @ 30 Aug 2023 06:17)
I mean it happens literally all the time but go off.


Good luck getting wrecked by a shot fired from 2000km away.
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Aug 31 2023 08:05am
Quote (Vastet @ Aug 31 2023 07:08am)
The foremost military power on Earth didn't care enough. The day the least powerful government cares enough you get wiped out and never even know what hit you.


we threw LITERALLY everything we had at them except nukes. you're being silly, insurgent forces with home town advantage can still give first class militaries issues, even in 2023.
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