Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 17 2020 11:51am)

Those are good points, I just disagree with the notion that these issues cant be brought under control with caution and hygiene measures. Like letting air into classrooms every 20 minutes, or doing handwashing at the end of each class. If some older students (say those aged 16+) are doing a lot of remote learning, that opens up facilities for the younger grades, so they could split their classes into two groups who don't interact with each other as much, etc.



Counterquestion: if someone believes in the "vaccines might very well never be available"-theory, wouldnt this automatically imply that we at some point have to reopen schools, no matter what it means for the spread?

To answer your question: even if one believes that a vaccine is coming, it won't be broadly available before late spring of 2021 at the earliest, might also take until the fall of 2021. It's simply a tradeoff: what would cause more damage - somewhat increased infection levels due to reopening schools with as strong precautions as possible, or keeping schools closed for an entire school year? The latter option would just lead to a ton of things which sneakily cause catastrophic long-term damage.

Let me guess out of my ass: if we dont open schools for the upcoming school year, there might be something like $400 billion in immediate economic damage from parents having to stay home to look after their kids, $1 trillion in long-term economic damage from the next generation falling behind on its education and not entirely making up for it later, $500 billion in long-term damage from missed development of social skills as well as psychological conditions developed in some kids form the long isolation, and god knows which amount of financial and social damage from reinforced social divisions (kids from poor and/or uneducated households fall far more behind during homeschooling).

So the explanation for why I believe both in a vaccine and in reopening schools is that my assessment of the stakes of reopening schools are just huuuuuge, so huge that it might make sense to sacrifice a couple of thousands lives via allowing a higher covid spread. Those are exceedingly complex and high-stakes tradeoffs, but they are inevitable - and I'm sure that experts around the world are thinking these things through behind the scenes.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 17 2020 12:51pm)

Those are good points, I just disagree with the notion that these issues cant be brought under control with caution and hygiene measures. Like letting air into classrooms every 20 minutes, or doing handwashing at the end of each class. If some older students (say those aged 16+) are doing a lot of remote learning, that opens up facilities for the younger grades, so they could split their classes into two groups who don't interact with each other as much, etc.



Counterquestion: if someone believes in the "vaccines might very well never be available"-theory, wouldnt this automatically imply that we at some point have to reopen schools, no matter what it means for the spread?

To answer your question: even if one believes that a vaccine is coming, it won't be broadly available before late spring of 2021 at the earliest, might also take until the fall of 2021. It's simply a tradeoff: what would cause more damage - somewhat increased infection levels due to reopening schools with as strong precautions as possible, or keeping schools closed for an entire school year? The latter option would just lead to a ton of things which sneakily cause catastrophic long-term damage.

Let me guess out of my ass: if we dont open schools for the upcoming school year, there might be something like $400 billion in immediate economic damage from parents having to stay home to look after their kids, $1 trillion in long-term economic damage from the next generation falling behind on its education and not entirely making up for it later, $500 billion in long-term damage from missed development of social skills as well as psychological conditions developed in some kids form the long isolation, and god knows which amount of financial and social damage from reinforced social divisions (kids from poor and/or uneducated households fall far more behind during homeschooling).

So the explanation for why I believe both in a vaccine and in reopening schools is that my assessment of the stakes of reopening schools are just huuuuuge, so huge that it might make sense to sacrifice a couple of thousands lives via allowing a higher covid spread. Those are exceedingly complex and high-stakes tradeoffs, but they are inevitable - and I'm sure that experts around the world are thinking these things through behind the scenes.

Quote (Skinned @ Jul 17 2020 12:26pm)

Why are intelligent people such a minority in the country

Quote (excellence @ 17 Jul 2020 18:58)

https://i.ibb.co/KqGmVPj/55-F59957-48-B6-4068-8-D05-0-A4743-DB15-BD.png

>if you are feeling sad, despondent, lonesome, or worried at all due to the 2 week 4 month quarantine and shutdown, then you probably have covid-19

Quote (Skinned @ Jul 17 2020 10:26am)

Dewine vetos GOP bill meant to undermine disaster response:
https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/dewine-vetoes-bill-to-undercut-power-of-public-health-orders/5EUQDQSVIBAAHK6EWALSQ5LXKI/?outputType=amp

Why are intelligent people such a minority in the current GOP?

Quote (thesnipa @ 17 Jul 2020 19:08)

this just isn't feasible at all for schools to do. especially in lower grade levels, which are also as you say the ones most in need of in school learning as older can do virtual easier. splitting classrooms = doubling your teachers and aides. how exactly can a school even begin to do that? my wife has to beg for years just to get 1 more aid, and there's 60 or so at her school.

i with the experience i have tho just cannot get past the idea that you can stop kids from spreading germs. refer to my original post about dividing by zero. its a non-starter. it cannot be done. children aged 5-10 are just natural germ spreaders. when i told my wife about this topic and the idea of stopping kids from spreading germs she just laughed for about a minute straight.

Quote (Skinned @ 17 Jul 2020 19:22)

Also the issue of those who aren't early adopters if technology. I just will not get this newly rushed vaccine, nor will my kids.

It would be insane to trust it after all the things that have happened in medicine.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2009/jul/29/thalidomide-birth-defects-asbestos-drugs

Example of a wonder drug for example.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 17 2020 01:08pm)

Well... I was thinking too much about the school system in Germany, which is notorious for short school days. Our students typically start classes around 8am and finish around 1pm. Under this system, it would be possible to split classes and teach some of them during the afternoon.
But even in a country with longer school days like the U.S., it should be possible to cancel some non-essential stuff like drama classes, and it should be possible to hire additional staff if necessary. Unemployed teachers, but you could also hire college graduates who have trouble finding a job. For example, why shouldnt someone who just finished his math degree and doesnt find a job in the current economy not be hired as an assistant math teacher for 9 months?

Quote

Regarding the germs: of course you can't stop kids from spreading germs. But Covid has specific ways of transmission, it's not like anyone who got touched by a kid with its greasy dirty hands is automatically infected.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 17 Jul 2020 15:50)

Your meme was insinuating that science is against reopening schools, which is objectively false.

The science is very clear: reopening schools is super important for children, and it does not pose an increased risk for their own health. The only critical point is preventing schoolschildren from contracting and spreading the virus to other segments of the population when schools are reopened. But those are details that can be fleshed out.