Quote (thesnipa @ 17 Jul 2020 16:13)
spreading is one factor, contracting is another, hygiene is another.
children dont respect social distancing and wont learn it quickly, children dont wash hands nearly as much, etc.
those studies are based in the idea that most children are asymptomatic, and that most asymptomatic people do not have as many globules to cough up and spread. aka if a kid with covid coughs he/she is less likely to spread it than an adult who likely has more flem and other symptoms. i was told as much when i was on quarentine, basically if i had no symptoms not to get tested because it may come back negative even though i have it because the swab wouldnt contact flem with germs in it.
but we're also speaking in generalities, an ok concept for the question "do i hug my nephew" but not a good concept for "do we send millions into schools". some things work fine on a small level but the larger the herd the less it's valid. kids having a lower chance to spread is still dangerous in a sample size of millions. just as "lets keep grandma from kissing the kids" works fine for your family but "lets keep all grandmas from kissing all kids" isnt realistic.
my wife changes diapers, gets sneezed on 10 times a week, has to help kids blow noses with gross results, kids cough in her mouth, etc. and about half of her kids are in multi-generational living situations.
Those are good points, I just disagree with the notion that these issues cant be brought under control with caution and hygiene measures. Like letting air into classrooms every 20 minutes, or doing handwashing at the end of each class. If some older students (say those aged 16+) are doing a lot of remote learning, that opens up facilities for the younger grades, so they could split their classes into two groups who don't interact with each other as much, etc.
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on a tangential note why is it im finding in real life the same people who are saying "dont worry vaccine is coming" are the same ones who say "we cant just cancel in person school forever". is the vaccine coming or not?
Counterquestion: if someone believes in the "vaccines might very well never be available"-theory, wouldnt this automatically imply that we at some point have to reopen schools, no matter what it means for the spread?
To answer your question: even if one believes that a vaccine is coming, it won't be broadly available before late spring of 2021 at the earliest, might also take until the fall of 2021. It's simply a tradeoff: what would cause more damage - somewhat increased infection levels due to reopening schools with as strong precautions as possible, or keeping schools closed for an entire school year? The latter option would just lead to a ton of things which sneakily cause catastrophic long-term damage.
Let me guess out of my ass: if we dont open schools for the upcoming school year, there might be something like $400 billion in immediate economic damage from parents having to stay home to look after their kids, $1 trillion in long-term economic damage from the next generation falling behind on its education and not entirely making up for it later, $500 billion in long-term damage from missed development of social skills as well as psychological conditions developed in some kids form the long isolation, and god knows which amount of financial and social damage from reinforced social divisions (kids from poor and/or uneducated households fall far more behind during homeschooling).
So the explanation for why I believe both in a vaccine and in reopening schools is that my assessment of the stakes of reopening schools are just huuuuuge, so huge that it might make sense to sacrifice a couple of thousands lives via allowing a higher covid spread. Those are exceedingly complex and high-stakes tradeoffs, but they are inevitable - and I'm sure that experts around the world are thinking these things through behind the scenes.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 17 2020 10:54am