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Jul 14 2022 04:27pm
Quote (dro94 @ 14 Jul 2022 23:35)
I thought Draghi was doing a good job, Italy always finds a way to fuck itself


Draghi's coalition afaik has already exceeded the mean time in office for an Italian government by quite a bit. Government collapsing every 16 months or so is the norm in Italy.


Btw, who do you think will win the Tory leadership race? Imho, it looks like it will come down to Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss.
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Jul 14 2022 11:17pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 14 2022 11:27pm)
Draghi's coalition afaik has already exceeded the mean time in office for an Italian government by quite a bit. Government collapsing every 16 months or so is the norm in Italy.


Btw, who do you think will win the Tory leadership race? Imho, it looks like it will come down to Sunak, Mordaunt and Truss.


It could be any of the three. While Sunak is most popular with MPs, he's the least popular with conservative members, so he's 7/2 to win despite being the favourite initially. While he's a smart guy, he's raised taxes significantly and will reign in spending, so offers less excitement than the others who are promising republican-esque tax cuts that will be the solution to all the UK's problems

While Mordaunt is the favourite now, Braverman endorsed Truss so her 27 votes will mostly go to Truss I think. Badenoch is on the right of the party and when she drops out, I think many votes will go to Truss as well. Tugendhat voters will probably go to Sunak. So actually, Sunak vs Truss and Truss winning the leadership would not surprise me, and the odds of that were 4/1 yesterday

This post was edited by dro94 on Jul 14 2022 11:18pm
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Jul 14 2022 11:22pm
Quote (dro94 @ 15 Jul 2022 07:17)
It could be any of the three. While Sunak is most popular with MPs, he's the least popular with conservative members, so he's 7/2 to win despite being the favourite initially. While he's a smart guy, he's raised taxes significantly and will reign in spending, so offers less excitement than the others who are promising republican-esque tax cuts that will be the solution to all the UK's problems

While Mordaunt is the favourite now, Braverman endorsed Truss so her 27 votes will mostly go to Truss I think. Badenoch is on the right of the party and when she drops out, I think many votes will go to Truss as well. Tugendhat voters will probably go to Sunak. So actually, Sunak vs Truss and Truss winning the leadership would not surprise me, and the odds of that were 4/1 yesterday


But isn't Liz Truss deeply unpopular with the British electorate? I've heard multiple times that she's very cold, very hawkish on foreign policy and social spending - and from what little I've seen from her, she gives me strong Thatcher-vibes. Mordaunt has an interesting biography, the major argument against her (from my low-info, foreign voyeur perspective) is that she was very close with GWB, so she could have a strong neocon streak.
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Jul 14 2022 11:34pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 15 2022 06:22am)
But isn't Liz Truss deeply unpopular with the British electorate? I've heard multiple times that she's very cold, very hawkish on foreign policy and social spending - and from what little I've seen from her, she gives me strong Thatcher-vibes. Mordaunt has an interesting biography, the major argument against her (from my low-info, foreign voyeur perspective) is that she was very close with GWB, so she could have a strong neocon streak.


None of them are particularly popular with the electorate. Do you think the conservative members even factor that in to their thinking? I don't think they do, and if they do, they delude themselves that polls are fake or they can turn the tide. These people are mostly elderly, rich, and out of touch with the rest of society

Mordaunt would actually be the worst for the country IMO. Whatever you may say about Sunak or Truss, they're not dumb. They have senior cabinet experience and a track record of achievements (or perceived achievements). Mordaunt does not, and the fact Lord Frost got rid of her as a minister after poor performance is not a good sign. Neither is being a brexiteer that said the UK couldn't veto Turkey's accession to the EU during the referendum campaign
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Jul 15 2022 12:02am
Quote (dro94 @ 15 Jul 2022 07:34)
None of them are particularly popular with the electorate. Do you think the conservative members even factor that in to their thinking? I don't think they do, and if they do, they delude themselves that polls are fake or they can turn the tide. These people are mostly elderly, rich, and out of touch with the rest of society

Mordaunt would actually be the worst for the country IMO. Whatever you may say about Sunak or Truss, they're not dumb. They have senior cabinet experience and a track record of achievements (or perceived achievements). Mordaunt does not, and the fact Lord Frost got rid of her as a minister after poor performance is not a good sign. Neither is being a brexiteer that said the UK couldn't veto Turkey's accession to the EU during the referendum campaign


I really doubt that the voters of a party which is regularly getting 40% of the popular vote in elections are "mostly elderly, rich, out of touch with the rest of society". ;)
But yeah, I get your point.

Then again... didn't Tories give Boris the boot specifically because they thought he would be too much of an electoral liability and drag the rest of the party down with him? Most of them stayed loyal to him through countless scandals after all, scandals which should have already been the end for him - all because they still, at the time, thought he was their best shot at keeping the 2019 coalition together. They only got rid of him once it had become clear that the calculus had changed. So I'm not sure if they really don't pay any attention to how their leadership candidates poll with the public.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 15 2022 12:03am
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Jul 15 2022 09:02am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 15 2022 07:02am)
I really doubt that the voters of a party which is regularly getting 40% of the popular vote in elections are "mostly elderly, rich, out of touch with the rest of society". ;)
But yeah, I get your point.

Then again... didn't Tories give Boris the boot specifically because they thought he would be too much of an electoral liability and drag the rest of the party down with him? Most of them stayed loyal to him through countless scandals after all, scandals which should have already been the end for him - all because they still, at the time, thought he was their best shot at keeping the 2019 coalition together. They only got rid of him once it had become clear that the calculus had changed. So I'm not sure if they really don't pay any attention to how their leadership candidates poll with the public.


They're not just voters, they're fee-paying members of the conservative party. That is a HUGE difference which can't be understated
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Jul 20 2022 03:03am
Meanwhile, in Germany:

An 11 year old girl was raped by an Afghan refugee - who was now found guilty. The court even explicitly stated that the defendant knew of the girl's age and knew that he was acting against her will. He was sentenced to... wait for it... one year on probation. :o :fume:

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/elfjaehrige-vergewaltigt-jugendlicher-zu-bewaehrungsstrafe-verurteilt-li.248390
https://www.nordkurier.de/neustrelitz/kind-in-neustrelitz-vergewaltigt-bewaehrungsstrafe-fuer-jugendlichen-1948952907.html

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 20 2022 03:05am
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Jul 20 2022 07:04am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 20 2022 11:03am)
Meanwhile, in Germany:

An 11 year old girl was raped by an Afghan refugee - who was now found guilty. The court even explicitly stated that the defendant knew of the girl's age and knew that he was acting against her will. He was sentenced to... wait for it... one year on probation. :o :fume:

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/elfjaehrige-vergewaltigt-jugendlicher-zu-bewaehrungsstrafe-verurteilt-li.248390
https://www.nordkurier.de/neustrelitz/kind-in-neustrelitz-vergewaltigt-bewaehrungsstrafe-fuer-jugendlichen-1948952907.html


of course undocumented so this shitfuck might as well be 26 and not 16, but our clown world courts dont care
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Jul 20 2022 09:52am
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ Jul 20 2022 06:04am)
of course undocumented so this shitfuck might as well be 26 and not 16, but our clown world courts dont care


Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 20 2022 02:03am)
Meanwhile, in Germany:

An 11 year old girl was raped by an Afghan refugee - who was now found guilty. The court even explicitly stated that the defendant knew of the girl's age and knew that he was acting against her will. He was sentenced to... wait for it... one year on probation. :o :fume:

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/elfjaehrige-vergewaltigt-jugendlicher-zu-bewaehrungsstrafe-verurteilt-li.248390
https://www.nordkurier.de/neustrelitz/kind-in-neustrelitz-vergewaltigt-bewaehrungsstrafe-fuer-jugendlichen-1948952907.html


Perhaps you guys can take a page out of America's book and charge minors as adults. You should also have stricter sentences like we do.
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Jul 20 2022 10:03am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 20 2022 02:03am)
Meanwhile, in Germany:

An 11 year old girl was raped by an Afghan refugee - who was now found guilty. The court even explicitly stated that the defendant knew of the girl's age and knew that he was acting against her will. He was sentenced to... wait for it... one year on probation. :o :fume:

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/elfjaehrige-vergewaltigt-jugendlicher-zu-bewaehrungsstrafe-verurteilt-li.248390
https://www.nordkurier.de/neustrelitz/kind-in-neustrelitz-vergewaltigt-bewaehrungsstrafe-fuer-jugendlichen-1948952907.html


atheist controlled western world been bending the knee to islam for years.
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