Quote (thundercock @ 17 Aug 2021 20:35)
I think it's too early to tell because we're still in the middle of it. So far, the Taliban are playing nice with the refugees we're protecting and they are respecting the security perimeter. If that continues to happen and we get all Americans out (there are like 10-20k still there) then this will be forgotten. Ultimately, COVID and the economy are going to be the factors that drive people to the polls.
If you believed that Biden was "weak" already, I don't think there's a chance you were going to vote for him. I think you have a legitimate argument regarding "competence" but I think the GOP is going to have a very difficult time making that argument unless inflation is really high during election season. I have to imagine those people are more informed on average so Trump/Bush/Obama will be etched into their minds and frankly that comparison doesn't bode well for the GOP. At this point, the only thing that's really going to matter are the candidates themselves and the redistricting demographics. Given polarization levels, margins matter less than they used to.
Yeah, the competence argument doesn't really bode well for the GOP if their public image keeps being dominated by Trump, some more Trump and then a bunch of zany showboats like Matt Gaetz.
One additional thought on the economy: you keep focusing on inflation, but at this rate, I wonder if there might actually be lingering unemployment issues in the fall of 2022. If there actually are renewed covid restrictions this winter, a lot of the small- to midsized businesses which managed to hang so far would fold, which could create significant downward pressure on the entire economy. The plummeting consumer confidence index from recent surveys could well be the canary in the coal mine in this regard. So it's conceivable, imho, that we get a split economy, with high wage growth for the sectors that recovered quickly, but a lot of malaise in others like leisure and hospitality.
Btw, out of curiosity: did you vote for Romney or Obama back in 2012? You strike me like one of these high info swing voters from the suburbs I was talking about, with centrist or perhaps center-right inclinations, but unable to tolerate the incompetence and nonseriousness of big chunks of the current GOP...
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 17 2021 03:52pm