Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 17 2021 04:01am)
Oh, I think this will weigh on Biden and Democrats at the margins. Sure, the rubes don't give a flying fuck about anything that's happening to Afghanistan, but they do care about projecting strength. Biden being responsible for the most visual display of American weakness on the international stage in decades will reinforce their belief that Biden is a weak president who will lead the country into avoidable defeat. Likewise, the high info swing voters form the suburbs care about executive competence and a stable, reliable foreign policy. Trump being an erratic maniac was one of the reasons this type of voter ran away from him in droves. Biden proving that his foreign policy is not actually more reliable or competent is a blow to the central pitch from his 2020 campaign ("return to normalcy and having the 'adults in the room' run the show again).
Of course none of this is gonna be more salient than kitchen table issues, but it will make for great GOP campaign clips depicting Joe Biden's America in freefall. I believe that this stuff can absolutely make the difference at the margins, and with the balance of power being as ultra-tightly balanced as it is, these margins might have huge consequences.
I think it's too early to tell because we're still in the middle of it. So far, the Taliban are playing nice with the refugees we're protecting and they are respecting the security perimeter. If that continues to happen and we get all Americans out (there are like 10-20k still there) then this will be forgotten. Ultimately, COVID and the economy are going to be the factors that drive people to the polls.
If you believed that Biden was "weak" already, I don't think there's a chance you were going to vote for him. I think you have a legitimate argument regarding "competence" but I think the GOP is going to have a very difficult time making that argument unless inflation is really high during election season. I have to imagine those people are more informed on average so Trump/Bush/Obama will be etched into their minds and frankly that comparison doesn't bode well for the GOP. At this point, the only thing that's really going to matter are the candidates themselves and the redistricting demographics. Given polarization levels, margins matter less than they used to.