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Jul 5 2022 02:14pm
Quote (WNxIrvine @ 5 Jul 2022 21:30)
A couple of potential reasons. Country is a mess right now, passing the buck to labour/lib dems for 4 years could give them an opportunity to deflect some of the damage onto them. Also, if team Boris continues to back Boris (or a Boris-like successor), the party is potentially split right down the middle, a genuinely struggle to see who could unite it again.


But a Labour or Labour/Lib Dem government would have 5 years to right the ship. Yes, chances are the next 1-2 years will be an unpleasant mess, but chances also are that things will increasingly improve after that period. By putting the other side in power for 5 years, Tories would risk that the next election comes up at a time when the country is on an upward trajectory, and people's mood with it.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 5 2022 02:14pm
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Jul 5 2022 02:35pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 5 2022 09:14pm)
But a Labour or Labour/Lib Dem government would have 5 years to right the ship. Yes, chances are the next 1-2 years will be an unpleasant mess, but chances also are that things will increasingly improve after that period. By putting the other side in power for 5 years, Tories would risk that the next election comes up at a time when the country is on an upward trajectory, and people's mood with it.


Most polls predict a hung parliament right now. So it would more than likely be a labour/lib dem coalition. With the tories still holding enough seats to cause trouble at the slightest wiff of disagreement between them, or even between the extreme factions of each party.

Let me be clear though, I have zero expectation that a general election will be called. In fact, I still think it's highly unlikely Boris willingly walks. But there is an argument to be made about calling a general election, albeit a weak one.
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Jul 5 2022 03:00pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 5 2022 07:19pm)
Why would Tories agree to a general election? They still have a healthy majority in the Commons and would get slaughtered in an election right now. The way I see it, the party just has to finally settle on a new leader (and, by extension, PM).


On the face of it, Boris can stay in power for a while longer:
1) He won the confidence vote recently and another one can't be called for a year
2) There are plenty of sycophants willing to sacrifice their integrity to replace outgoing ministers

But there will still be more resignations and he may get sick of his own MPs turning on him

This post was edited by dro94 on Jul 5 2022 03:00pm
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Jul 5 2022 04:26pm
Quote (dro94 @ 5 Jul 2022 23:00)
On the face of it, Boris can stay in power for a while longer:
1) He won the confidence vote recently and another one can't be called for a year
2) There are plenty of sycophants willing to sacrifice their integrity to replace outgoing ministers

But there will still be more resignations and he may get sick of his own MPs turning on him

Sure, but I think the dam has finally been breached. At this point, it must be crystal clear to any Tory that their own chances at reelection will go down the longer the current misery drags on, the longer Johnson stays in power. From a selfish, self-preserving POV, it would clearly be better for virtually any Tory to boot Johnson now and hope that him and his scandals will be a distant memory on voters' mind in 2.5 years when the next election takes place.

I mean... yes, he technically can't face another confidence vote for a year, but if the entire Tory bench signed a letter calling for his resignation, would he really be able to withstand the pressure?
Also... correct me if I'm wrong, but couldn't the Tory majority in parliament just call a parliamentary (rather than party-internal) vote of no confidence?
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Jul 5 2022 06:59pm
all elections are rigged not only at the voting machine level but to the point that the DNC will irradiate those who refuse to leave the white house. Its all nonsense anyways, the real control are agencies like nsa, shadow gov, etc.

lets not pretend Joe poopy pants biden and his wernicke's aphasia is getting anything done, they give him note cards on how to behave 247 and do a great job. Joe biden belongs in a retirement home so to speak and to no suprise the end result was cancel culture and death to mom and pop stores.


Reality is AI has taken over reality and is playing strong mind games w/ every (divide and conquer).
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Jul 6 2022 03:09am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 5 2022 11:26pm)
Sure, but I think the dam has finally been breached. At this point, it must be crystal clear to any Tory that their own chances at reelection will go down the longer the current misery drags on, the longer Johnson stays in power. From a selfish, self-preserving POV, it would clearly be better for virtually any Tory to boot Johnson now and hope that him and his scandals will be a distant memory on voters' mind in 2.5 years when the next election takes place.

I mean... yes, he technically can't face another confidence vote for a year, but if the entire Tory bench signed a letter calling for his resignation, would he really be able to withstand the pressure?
Also... correct me if I'm wrong, but couldn't the Tory majority in parliament just call a parliamentary (rather than party-internal) vote of no confidence?


The 1922 tory committee can change the party rules so another no confidence vote can be cast. They elect another executive sometime this week (i think?) so the anti boris bunch are pushing for someone obviously anti boris. They reckon they could have another vote within 3 weeks if all goes well.

Don't think you can have a parliamentary vote on just the pm, as it's an internal tory dispute, you could only have it for the whole party and call a general election. Could be wrong though.
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Jul 6 2022 03:45am
Quote (WNxIrvine @ Jul 6 2022 10:09am)
The 1922 tory committee can change the party rules so another no confidence vote can be cast. They elect another executive sometime this week (i think?) so the anti boris bunch are pushing for someone obviously anti boris. They reckon they could have another vote within 3 weeks if all goes well.

Don't think you can have a parliamentary vote on just the pm, as it's an internal tory dispute, you could only have it for the whole party and call a general election. Could be wrong though.


Ah i was wrong. Appatently you can have a no confidence parliamentary vote if the opposition put the vote forward.
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Jul 6 2022 09:14am
Looks like Germany is reaching the tipping point regarding gas. They will be bailing out gas companies soon:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-bail-out-energy-suppliers-ahead-of-winter-without-russian-gas-11657032009
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Jul 6 2022 12:48pm
Quote (WNxIrvine @ Jul 6 2022 10:45am)
Ah i was wrong. Appatently you can have a no confidence parliamentary vote if the opposition put the vote forward.


There are a couple of ways to get rid of him in any case

Patel has just called on him to resign. At this rate, it'll just be Dorries and Rees-Mogg left...

What a fucking state populism and Brexit has done to this great country

This post was edited by dro94 on Jul 6 2022 12:48pm
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Jul 6 2022 12:50pm
Quote (TritonV8 @ Jul 6 2022 05:14pm)
Looks like Germany is reaching the tipping point regarding gas. They will be bailing out gas companies soon:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-bail-out-energy-suppliers-ahead-of-winter-without-russian-gas-11657032009


i wonder with what money, we are already wasting ridiculous amounts, the trade surplus is gone and millions of jobs are in question right now

good thing i have stacked for the winter, this will be ugly
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