Could you elaborate on this "rapid social progress" and the extent to which they could be considered a "modern nation" by the standards of the time (60s or 70s)?





According to a Pentagon study, Afghanistan has untapped mineral reserves worth around $1 trillion. For a population of 31 milllion, that would, in an unrealistic best case scenario, yield $32k per capita. But since these minerals don't mine themselves, we would have to subtract the extraction costs, the profit margin for the foreign mining corporation, the necessary investment into dead infrastructure (e.g. a road leading to a mine in the middle of nowhere which serves no more purpose once the mine has been exhausted) and so on. So realistically, we're looking at perhaps $10k per capita remaining in the country. And that's the total over the timespan of decades that it would take to mine all these minerals.



... they always usually drop their birthrate.

Counterexamples are found in Western, Eastern and Middle Africa while Northern and Southern Africa saw declining birthrates.

Some examples of African countries which are stable (by African standards) and made big strides in terms of economic growth or education over the past 20 years, but where yearly growth rates have barely gone down:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/angola-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/tanzania-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uganda-population/

in german media there was a report with pictures about the afghan "army" getting a fresh delivery of dozens of military vehicles in late spring/early summer

obviously they had no will fight and i am 100% certain the US + allies (at least the US though) were perfectly aware of this

dont even try to tell me that all the involved military guys and intelligence didnt know

this was never about afghanistan, it was about profit for the military industrial complex, they dont give a shit if the afghans actually use that stuff or the taliban take it, they make bank regardless

Not wanting to go too far down the conspiracy theorist rabbit hole... but could it be possible that leaving behind a fat, steaming pile of shit in Iran's backyard is in the geostrategic interest of the United States and Israel?

they certainly dont mind, but after talking about how insignificant this shithole is, i dont really see how afghanistan would be a problem for iran or any other power

the biggest impact i see right now is obviously the stream of migrants, but iran will just wave them through

But would Turkey or Azerbaijan allow Iran to wave them through and onto their territory? Erdogan must know that there is a non-negligible risk that the EU pulls its drawbridges up and he is stuck with the stream of migrants - and anti-migrant sentiment is already running high in Turkey and weakening Erdogan's grip on power. If Erdogan can successfully leverage the Afghan migrants to extort new concessions from the EU, it's a win for him - but it could just as well end with him being the one who's screwed.

All the reports I've read so far about the guard posts that were to provide screening against a Taliban advance is that they stopped receiving supplies between May and June. Granted, a lot of that information is coming directly from Afghan Security personnel, so I can't verify the reporting really.

But again, no, I don't think they ever wanted to fight the Taliban. Afghanistan has had so many civil wars over the last century that I don't really think anyone BUT the Taliban has any fight left in them. Add that the Taliban are relatively peaceful Sunni Muslims when they're in control, and 99.7% of the total population is also Sunni Muslim... I think if the US gets out and stops attempting to impose it's idea of women's rights and religious rights on the Nation, it'll probably be better for the overwhelming majority of Afghanis than things have been since the 50's.

Also, I'm not sure where the "60 years of occupation" number comes from. In the last Century I can track 10 years from the Soviets and 20 from the US. Wasn't it like the 1800's at some point when the British occupied them? And at no time did I see any real modernization.

thats true, turkey has reached their limits as a society as the recent outrages against syrians clearly show

good point, but i would correct one thing

the EU will not pull its drawbridges up and it never has, it will be states like greece taking matters into their own hands as always or we would get another tsunami



i agree, i personally know veterans who served in afghanistan and local people openly told them that they prefer taliban rule as they usually leave them in peace

This post was edited by JohnnyMcCoy on Aug 15 2021 04:26pm

It's hard to say what the actual amount is. I've seen ranges anywhere from 1 trillion to 10 trillion over the past however long I've been following politics. Until we get in there and get real surveys done it's hard to say for certain.

It's also got like a trillion dollars of oil that can be extracted, and other natural resources.

Point is, it's not some barren wasteland with nothing to offer. If properly tapped they have resources worth extracting that can build the country.

No doubt, I fully agree. The issue would tend to be their internal struggles. If they can avoid devolving into faction-based civil war like they did after the Soviets pulled out, it's entirely possible they could make something of themselves economically.

I simply doubt that they would change much socially for any given reason. 99.7% Muslim and in favor of Sharia as a whole is not a diverse nation prone to exceptional social progress.



Yeah... And the stories of what our "allied" Afghanis did, especially with little boys is pretty terrible. Oddly, the Taliban banned bacha bazi when they took power in 1996. And it's almost a guarantee they'll ban it again. The sentence for anyone caught practicing it tends to be lethal, so I mean, there's some actual benefit to them taking control back.

This post was edited by InsaneBobb on Aug 15 2021 04:50pm