Quote (bogie160 @ 15 Aug 2021 06:08)
I don't blame Biden for the decision to exit the country, but expectations for the withdrawal were delusional. If maintaining a functioning Afghani state was a priority at all, negotiations had to be concluded before the United States withdrew.
Afghanistan has always been a poor, backwards, secluded place. Tribal politics and tribal revolts have played a decisive role in Afghanistan's history. It was not a "state" in the true sense of the word for the majority of its history. The monarchy tried to foster nationalist feeling and institute reforms, but they never truly succeeded, and like various Russian czars, reformist rulers were often killed before their reforms could take root. The constant civil wars, communist revolution, Soviet occupation, warlord rule, and Taliban rule didn't help, but the Soviet occupation was a response to Afghani instability, not the other way around. The Soviet Union was a major provider of aid and development to Afghanistan well before Afghani communists seized control of the state. It was communist infighting that led to the Soviets occupying the country, and communist reforms (e.g. the education of women) that, like monarchist reforms before it, led to internal resistance and the mujahideen. In turn, corrupt warlord rule led to the rise of the Taliban.
Boiling these things down to "60 years of occupation" is to take a simplistic, one-dimensional view of Afghani history. For the most part, the problems which afflict Afghanistan are Afghani problems. It's hard to build a state when tribal leaders have so much power, and yet tribal leaders are themselves a local government response to instability and lack of central control. It's hard to build stable political coalitions among ethnic groups that have never been part of a cohesive whole. Europe had to work this out over centuries of political and religious warfare. The mostly peaceful development of democratic capitalism in England was a process that took place over hundreds of years. In most cases, modernization fails many more times than it succeeds.
1. Trump made the decision to exit Afghanistan, not Biden. Biden violated the terms Trump's Administration negotiated. As a result, instead of a measured withdrawal that includes all the people, all the equipment, every US resource, and some of the Afghanis that worked the most closely with the US, many resources were left behind, much equipment was left behind, and everyone from our puppet government officials to Afghan Security to basic translators... And their families... Are now looking at being massacred.
2. Afghanistan spent over thirteen hundred years as a proud Islamic Theocracy. No matter which "rulers" ruled, they've been proud, very nationalist, and maintained the culture of Islam. They've defeated the British, the Russians, and now the Americans. They are VERY familiar and comfortable with their culture and way of life.
3. Afghanistan and it's people are not worried about "occupation". They have experienced nothing but hard times for a thousand years. It's a great nation full of strong men that is constantly beset by nations experiencing great times and full of weak men.
The primary concern right now is that there are some 300K security forces, plus government officials, translators, collaborators, etc. And their families. You're talking millions of people who're very likely to be massacred. And nobody fears Biden's threat that the US will "act" if the Taliban does what they are predicted to do. The Biden Administration has no teeth.