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Feb 7 2024 09:08am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 7 2024 03:43pm)


I didn't mean what I wrote in the sense that Russia poses a credible threat of militarily conquering all of Europe, just that they pose a military threat for European countries. Which is clearly true with regard to the Baltics and Ukraine.


I think it's more or less a done deal that the territory currently held by Russia will end up being annexed. What the current fighting in Ukraine is all about is the rest of Ukraine (will Russia gain more territory?) and its status (can the remaining Ukraine join NATO and/or the EU?) I don't think that the answer being 'no/yes/yes' is a given.




thats what i am saying though, the baltics are safe and whatever remains of ukraine as well

i keep talking about a peace deal, because the ensures there is as much of ukraine left as possible to join the western block

all western national leaders, the EU and NATO leaders say the same thing and its why west never bothered to stop this war

they want ukraine as a part of the west and if every single young man in ukraine needs to be sacrificed so be it
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Feb 7 2024 10:44am
Quote (Malopox @ 7 Feb 2024 15:58)
I feel we are going in circles here. Germans wanted SPOT supplies which are unreliable for myriad of reasons. One of them can be that people dont like your face or because its Thursday. Nobody can be forced to trade if they dont feel like it. Germany got exactly what they wanted. Spot supplies which can be cut off and you cannot cry or do anything about it.

- We don’t want guaranteed supplies!
- Then we cannot guarantee we will sell to you?
- No you have to, because otherwise we will be sad. You have to guarantee you will supply no matter what, but we reserve the right to not buy if we don’t like the price today.

I never said that Russia had no right to refuse to sell in 2021. All I'm saying is that it's highly fishy that they changed their stance in 2021 for no apparent reason after having been cooperative for literally decades. Also note that Germany was willing to pay the usual, market-rate premium for the supplies they wanted to buy on the spot market. Russia still refused.

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So now they realized they were not so right perhaps and the whole spot market thing doesn’t really work. So they did what they could, sign those long term contracts anyway.

That's not what we did though. Germany decided to rather risk going into the 2021/22 winter with low filling levels, of course not anticipating what would go down over the following 18 months...

The long term contracts were only signed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, at a time when Russia was already throttling gas supplies through the established pipelines and it was abundantly clear that this source would dry up very soon. Germany was simply in a much weaker bargaining position when they signed the contracts with Qatar in 2022 than when they rejected Russian suggestions of similar contracts in 2019-2021.

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Why bother and antagonize your main supplier for years then? It’s simply not rational unless you had other motives or were driven by an external party trying to gain market share in an existing market,

Or if you were already planning to gradually phase out gas and oil over the coming years, so that you wanted to retain flexibility and not get stuck on decades-long contracts with take of pay clauses.





Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 7 Feb 2024 16:08)
thats what i am saying though, the baltics are safe and whatever remains of ukraine as well

i keep talking about a peace deal, because the ensures there is as much of ukraine left as possible to join the western block

all western national leaders, the EU and NATO leaders say the same thing and its why west never bothered to stop this war

they want ukraine as a part of the west and if every single young man in ukraine needs to be sacrificed so be it

The Baltics are not safe if Russia outright wins the war in Ukraine and the US is led by a president who isn't committed to NATO.
Whatever remains of Ukraine will only be safe if Russia signs the peace deal and actually sticks by it.
Also note that Russia is currently working really hard on chipping away at "whatever remains of Ukraine".
If the Ukrainians themselves were no longer willing to fight and wanted to try their luck with negotiations, there would be nothing the West could do to force them to continue fighting.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 7 2024 10:46am
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Feb 17 2024 03:43am
Time for another update. Ukrainian defense lines in Avdiivka crumble with wounded Ukrainian soldiers being abandoned by their superiors.

Avdiivka: Fortress city described as one of the strongest fortified regions in Ukraine's defense line.


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Feb 17 2024 03:47am
Quote (Djunior @ Feb 17 2024 09:43am)
Time for another update. Ukrainian defense lines in Avdiivka crumble with wounded Ukrainian soldiers being abandoned by their superiors.

Avdiivka: Fortress city described as one of the strongest fortified regions in Ukraine's defense line.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUtBfP4-TqQ


It only took Russians 10 years to capture it, quite the achievement.
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Feb 17 2024 03:49am
Quote (Djunior @ Feb 17 2024 03:43am)
Time for another update. Ukrainian defense lines in Avdiivka crumble with wounded Ukrainian soldiers being abandoned by their superiors.

Avdiivka: Fortress city described as one of the strongest fortified regions in Ukraine's defense line.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUtBfP4-TqQ


The way the city fell almost immediately after the bunker complex was taken in the south, with the reports of being outflanked by tunnels, makes me think the UA brass was assuming that even as the city fell it would take longer and they'd have more time to retreat
because all the footage on sites right now shows ukrainians running on foot under fire, or being captured. And they abandoned the coke plant instead of trying to hold out there
the city isn't completely encircled or taken yet, but the paths of retreat are under intense fire and Russia will have full control in ~2 days, so it sure looks like a rout
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Feb 17 2024 03:57am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 17 2024 10:47am)
It only took Russians 10 years to capture it, quite the achievement.


It actually is an achievement.

Nothing goes unnoticed, every movement is picked up by drones that continuously monitor the battlefield and surrounding area and defending soldiers simply send coordinates back to artillery units and FPV drone operators.

It's a hell of a job to take these kind of fortifications, Ukraine found out the hard way during last summer's much hyped NATO trained / equipped counteroffensive.

;)

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Feb 17 2024 04:18am
Guess the exact same turd who is constantly bumping this topic has a seat here :rofl:

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Feb 17 2024 04:29am
Luckily for Ukraine they don't lose soldiers, only civilians

Also they're lucky that the delusional West keeps providing them with more money and equipment

Equipment that the Russian then destroy but hey we don't count those losses just like we don't count Ukrainian soldiers

Sad
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Feb 17 2024 04:42am
1210 kills while retreating :o must have been the FFL
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Feb 23 2024 10:54am
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