Quote (Malopox @ 7 Feb 2024 15:58)
I feel we are going in circles here. Germans wanted SPOT supplies which are unreliable for myriad of reasons. One of them can be that people dont like your face or because its Thursday. Nobody can be forced to trade if they dont feel like it. Germany got exactly what they wanted. Spot supplies which can be cut off and you cannot cry or do anything about it.
- We don’t want guaranteed supplies!
- Then we cannot guarantee we will sell to you?
- No you have to, because otherwise we will be sad. You have to guarantee you will supply no matter what, but we reserve the right to not buy if we don’t like the price today.
I never said that Russia had no right to refuse to sell in 2021. All I'm saying is that it's highly fishy that they changed their stance in 2021 for no apparent reason after having been cooperative for literally decades. Also note that Germany was willing to pay the usual, market-rate premium for the supplies they wanted to buy on the spot market. Russia still refused.
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So now they realized they were not so right perhaps and the whole spot market thing doesn’t really work. So they did what they could, sign those long term contracts anyway.
That's not what we did though. Germany decided to rather risk going into the 2021/22 winter with low filling levels, of course not anticipating what would go down over the following 18 months...
The long term contracts were only signed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, at a time when Russia was already throttling gas supplies through the established pipelines and it was abundantly clear that this source would dry up very soon. Germany was simply in a much weaker bargaining position when they signed the contracts with Qatar in 2022 than when they rejected Russian suggestions of similar contracts in 2019-2021.
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Why bother and antagonize your main supplier for years then? It’s simply not rational unless you had other motives or were driven by an external party trying to gain market share in an existing market,
Or if you were already planning to gradually phase out gas and oil over the coming years, so that you wanted to retain flexibility and not get stuck on decades-long contracts with take of pay clauses.
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 7 Feb 2024 16:08)
thats what i am saying though, the baltics are safe and whatever remains of ukraine as well
i keep talking about a peace deal, because the ensures there is as much of ukraine left as possible to join the western block
all western national leaders, the EU and NATO leaders say the same thing and its why west never bothered to stop this war
they want ukraine as a part of the west and if every single young man in ukraine needs to be sacrificed so be it
The Baltics are not safe if Russia outright wins the war in Ukraine and the US is led by a president who isn't committed to NATO.
Whatever remains of Ukraine will only be safe if Russia signs the peace deal and actually sticks by it.
Also note that Russia is currently working really hard on chipping away at "whatever remains of Ukraine".
If the Ukrainians themselves were no longer willing to fight and wanted to try their luck with negotiations, there would be nothing the West could do to force them to continue fighting.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 7 2024 10:46am