Prominent and knowledgable left-leaning strategists like David Shor and Matthew Yglesias, as well as election analyst Nate Cohn, all beg to differ. According to them, GOP gains with latinos were widespread and not limited to Cubans in Florida. All three of them consider the inroads Trump/the GOP made in 2020 to be real, relevant and worrisome for Democrats with regard to 2022/24, not negligible.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/03/david-shor-2020-democrats-autopsy-hispanic-vote-midterms-trump-gop.html
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/5/21548677/trump-hispanic-vote-latinx
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/us/census-news-republicans-democrats.html

indeed, a good reason not to fuck around across state lines.



the tl;dr autopsy of this is basically "stop going so hyperbolic on open borders rhetoric". once the democrats course correct, which of course they will because their hyperbole was mostly in response to the extreme rhetoric Trump used to justify his ineffectual wall campaign, they'll do just fine.

The flow chart is pretty simple, legal immigrants want legal migration to remain because eliminating it cheapens their struggle, but also dont want hardcore enforcement because they're potentially vulnerable to profiling AND their community itself then sees drastically increased enforcement from ICE. there's plenty of room for a happy medium, and democrats just need to find it. a centrist leftie cuck like Biden is tailor made for making the pendulum return to center low fastest.

these fleeing percentages are the smoke billowing in warning of a trend, not fire.

the reason Cubans in Florida are the only big deal is they're the hardest to win back with normal operating procedures. but as i said before, targeting felons for registration may undercut their importance moving forward.

There's a legitimate prosecutorial reason for it, in that if they get off on a technicality on one charge they will still be serving for the others, which is why sentences are typically given out as concurrent serving. So if you get 3 concurrent 12 year sentences and beat 2 you will still serve the 12 years.

However, there is likely abuse. If they aren't giving them concurrently just to throw the book at them, then that's pretty bad.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Jul 7 2021 10:25am

i agree(d).

it becomes an issue tho when prosecutors are chicken shits who charge for the crime they know they cant prove (to placate the mob) and the one they think will stick (to at least stop a riot and keep outrage on twitter over the low sentence that follows).

maybe if we had more transparency people would learn and stop flooding the twitter threads with variations of "2 years of murder? my cousin ray ray got........" over, and over, and over.....

in this case Chauvin got both barrels, and people still cry 20+ years isnt enough. dudes gonna need blue chew just to feel something when he gets out.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jul 7 2021 10:28am

He will have enough money to retire when he gets out of prison. Judging by amount of unreported income in his tax evasion case he probably has enough to retire now.

It would not surprise me if the OP feels sympathy for the child-beating landlord convicted of murder but not the person he murdered

This post was edited by Doggyfood on Jul 7 2021 10:39am

he'll need that money to move somewhere so deep into Montana no one knows who he is.

If he moved into Montana he would be given a medal of honor.

Montana is not the antiracist bastion you think it is.
They’ll make a statue of him.

i have friends there, i know it's not antiracist. but its so sparsely populated u could disappear there in almost all of the state besides 1 area. it's where i'd hide for sure.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jul 7 2021 11:03am

He has done the opposite so far. He needlessly rescinded Trump's remain in mexico policy, sent out signals to Central America that the US borders will be wide open again and triggered a huge wave of irregular migrants. And in spite of all polls showing this state of affairs to be a huge liability for him and his party, he hasn't moved back on these policies, presumably because he's too afraid of the lefty "activist" base of his party for whom the talk about open borders is an actual agenda and not just hyperbole.


Various election experts think differently, and their arguments are far more convincing than yours. You are, of course, entitled to your own opinion, so we'll just disagree on that one.


You are once again assuming that some sort of granular demographic shift in the electorate of a huge and diverse state/nation will doom the GOP. Which, once again, will not be the case


You are right in one regard though: I dont think that Democrats need Florida going forward. The demographic trends in Georgia are an entirely different beast and absolutely atrocious for the GOP. Georgia will presumably be competitive in 2022 and perhaps also 2024, but by 2028, it will be a reliably blue state. So in the medium-term future, Georgia will replace Florida in Democratic maps and allow them to write off that light-red* state.



*in the past 22 years, there has been exactly one single instance of a non-incumbent Democrat winning a race for president, governor or senator in Florida, and that was Obama in 08.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 7 2021 11:47am