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Jun 29 2020 10:45am
Quote (Thor123422 @ 29 Jun 2020 18:00)
Looks like our second wave is here. A few weeks ago you asked where the second wave was in Florida. The prediction of the second wave didn't take into account the lower spread of outdoor activities, like beaches, which is likely why the second wave took longer to take hold there.


Yeah, something in Florida is going horribly wrong at the moment. I'm not so sure if it's really a second wave, or only the fault of their early reopening. If you look at the chart showing the evolution of daily case numbers in various states, you will see that the almost all states which weren't badly affected in March/April have seen a marked uptick in case numbers over the last days:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/ohio/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/oregon/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

So states which imposed early and strict lockdowns and reopened cautiously, like Ohio and California (which both got praised for their handling of the pandemic), are seeing a similar development as states like Georgia ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/ ) or Texas ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/ ).

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The most obvious explanation would be that the entire country reopened too early, but then again, many European countries have reopened when they were at similar daily case numbers per capita as states like California or Ohio, and did not see a similar surge. An alternative explanation is that the pandemic started in the North East and is now sweeping across the rest of the country after, like you said, the spread was delayed by warmer weather and more outdoor activities. The protests imho also play a role. We're now 2-3 weeks after these protests, so the surge in case numbers in states like CA, OH or OR could be explained by that. Numbers were already on the upswing in AZ or FL, and the protests certainly didnt help.

-----

By the way: could it be possible that people are actually spending MORE time indoors during midsummer in states like Arizona or Texas than they did in spring?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 29 2020 10:46am
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Jun 29 2020 11:02am
Quote (Thor123422 @ 29 Jun 2020 18:34)
If you think contact tracing or keeping people safe from retaliation for protesting is more important depends on your values. When I said the position is reasonable I was just saying that there is an underlying justification based on a coherent set of values.


So the police harassing people for not wearing masks or not social distancing properly is justified because the pandemic was just such a huge threat, but the police harassing people for protests is worse than failing to contain the further spread of the virus from confirmed cases - and both these judgement calls are supposed to come from one coherent set of values? Maybe I'm being dense right now, but I fail to see how that should be possible. The only coherent set of values from which both these assessment could be derived is "all liberals causes = good, everything Trump = bad".


Quote
We have a very decentralized policing system that lends itself to repeat offenders and vengeful dickheads.


Would be really helpful to have a national register of bad cops who were fired from their local PDs for misconduct. Which is exactly what the Trump administration proposed in a bill which contained a bunch of very helpful and sensible measures for police reform. Democrats shut it down immediately because, according to them, getting no improvements is better than getting some improvements which they considered not far-reaching enough.

Quote
People in the United States are hugely distrustful of their government, and indeed every government. We are an incredibly individualistic society. That's why we can't respond adequately to a pandemic, and why the police get away with brutalizing people. It's why we have Donald "5 bankruptcies" Trump and you have Angela "Ph.D in Analytical Chemistry" Merkel. We are, as a society, fairly incapable of seeing the big picture.


And nonetheless, Merkel has inflicted far more damage on Germany than Trump has inflicted on the U.S., particularly long-term damage. :rolleyes:


This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 29 2020 11:04am
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Jun 29 2020 11:17am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 29 2020 12:02pm)
So the police harassing people for not wearing masks or not social distancing properly is justified because the pandemic was just such a huge threat, but the police harassing people for protests is worse than failing to contain the further spread of the virus from confirmed cases - and both these judgement calls are supposed to come from one coherent set of values? Maybe I'm being dense right now, but I fail to see how that should be possible. The only coherent set of values from which both these assessment could be derived is "all liberals causes = good, everything Trump = bad".
Would be really helpful to have a national register of bad cops who were fired from their local PDs for misconduct. Which is exactly what the Trump administration proposed in a bill which contained a bunch of very helpful and sensible measures for police reform. Democrats shut it down immediately because, according to them, getting no improvements is better than getting some improvements which they considered not far-reaching enough.
And nonetheless, Merkel has inflicted far more damage on Germany than Trump has inflicted on the U.S., particularly long-term damage. :rolleyes:


The things you are bringing up are not contradictory. It's very possible to believe that a pandemic is enough of a bar to require mask wearing, prevent indoor gatherings and normal business operations, but not a high enough bar to stop government protests, since protesting the government should, in my opinion, be one of the absolute highest rights in the country.

I don't think you appreciate the long-term damage Trump has inflicted on the U.S. It is no exaggeration to say that his DoJ interferrence in the Flynn case is a level of corruption not seen since Teapot Dome in the 1920s, and that's just one example. We've basically lost our seat at the world table, he's alienated us militarily from the rest of the world since even Israel and GB know they can't trust him with secrets without them going straight to Putin.
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Jun 29 2020 11:53am
Quote (Thor123422 @ Jun 29 2020 01:17pm)
The things you are bringing up are not contradictory. It's very possible to believe that a pandemic is enough of a bar to require mask wearing, prevent indoor gatherings and normal business operations, but not a high enough bar to stop government protests, since protesting the government should, in my opinion, be one of the absolute highest rights in the country.

I don't think you appreciate the long-term damage Trump has inflicted on the U.S. It is no exaggeration to say that his DoJ interferrence in the Flynn case is a level of corruption not seen since Teapot Dome in the 1920s, and that's just one example. We've basically lost our seat at the world table, he's alienated us militarily from the rest of the world since even Israel and GB know they can't trust him with secrets without them going straight to Putin.


Except if those government protests are against lockdown measures, in which case it's irresponsible again. And religious gatherings? Not a chance. "First Amendment for me, but not for thee."

The United States has not "lost its seat at the world table", please don't imitate the know-nothings who are suddenly pretending to be foreign policy experts.
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Jun 29 2020 12:04pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Jun 29 2020 12:53pm)
Except if those government protests are against lockdown measures, in which case it's irresponsible again. And religious gatherings? Not a chance. "First Amendment for me, but not for thee."

The United States has not "lost its seat at the world table", please don't imitate the know-nothings who are suddenly pretending to be foreign policy experts.


Yeah, lost its seat at the table was too strong of wording. Still, our soft power has taken a huge hit and China is taking over our position as world leader, with Germany coming up behind them.

Religious gatherings have a lower bar because you can still do them from home. There is no inherent need to be present for a mass, and plenty of churches already do broadcasts of sermons.

I didn't see condemnation of protests against the lockdown measures specifically. I saw a lot of condemnation of them bringing guns and dressed like they were insurgents at the capital building though.
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Jun 29 2020 12:25pm
A question which I still find very interesting and which got lost in the shuffle:

Quote (myself)
Could it be possible that people are actually spending MORE time indoors during midsummer in [desert] states like Arizona or Texas than they did in spring?


If that was indeed the case, then it would be a partial explanation why the corona situation deteriorates across the south.
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Jun 29 2020 12:26pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 29 2020 01:25pm)
A question which I still find very interesting and which got lost in the shuffle:
If that was indeed the case, then it would be a partial explanation why the corona situation deteriorates across the south.


I'm in the midwest, and it's already getting up to like 105°F (40°C) here. I wouldn't be surprised if they were.
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Jun 29 2020 12:40pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 29 Jun 2020 20:26)
I'm in the midwest, and it's already getting up to like 105°F (40°C) here. I wouldn't be surprised if they were.


Damn... you're from Missouri or Kansas if I remember correctly - continental climate can be a bitch. Far too cold for my taste during winter, far too hot during summer. ;)

Hope you at least have good air conditioning in your lab!
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Jun 29 2020 12:53pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Jun 29 2020 02:04pm)
Yeah, lost its seat at the table was too strong of wording. Still, our soft power has taken a huge hit and China is taking over our position as world leader, with Germany coming up behind them.

Religious gatherings have a lower bar because you can still do them from home. There is no inherent need to be present for a mass, and plenty of churches already do broadcasts of sermons.

I didn't see condemnation of protests against the lockdown measures specifically. I saw a lot of condemnation of them bringing guns and dressed like they were insurgents at the capital building though.


One of the dumbest things i've heard all week.
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Jun 29 2020 12:54pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Jun 29 2020 01:53pm)
One of the dumbest things i've heard all week.


Then you havent been paying attention

Even if you disagree with what I said, if you were familiar with international events the last few years you wouldn't see it as an inherently unreasonable position.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jun 29 2020 01:05pm
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