Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 28 Sep 2021 22:20)
Do you know the numbers for the "imbalanced pay to the EU?" because I thought they got more money back than they put in.
Before Brexit, they used to be the second largest net contributor to the EU budget behind Germany for many years. Moreover, the British stance on fiscal policy was wildly at odds with the push of the 'southern bloc' around France and Italy to move the EU toward a transfer and debt union.
Another key factor of Brexit was sovereignty. The EU courts issued several rulings which didn't go over well at all in Britain. Generally speaking, the Eurocrats in Brussels are constantly trying to eat away at national sovereignty and transfer more and more power toward the EU. Many europhile politicians and countries are explicitly endorsing the vision of a "United States of Europe" as the endgame of the EU while that's a horror vision for the independent-minded and headstrong Brits. European courts having (or claiming to have) precedence over British courts was a huge talking point for the Leave campaign.
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Also I thought the UK has always been exempt from immigration quotas ever since their joining of the EU, because that was basically one of their conditions.
Afaik that's not the case.
The two waves of the EU eastern expansion (in 2004 and 2007) contained provisions which allowed the old member states to delay and limit the freedom of movement for the Polish, Romanian etc. workers for up to 7 years since many of them feared being overrun by cheap Eastern European workers. The Labour-led, very globalist and neoliberal UK government under Tony Blair opted not to use these clauses and fully open its economy for these people right away, which led to a huge influx of Poles in particular. This surge of - mostly cheap, non-college - workers from Eastern Europe triggered or exacerbated anti-immigration and anti-EU sentiments in the UK, which led to the rise of UKIP and, ultimately, to Brexit.
Another factor is the historical context: just 9 months prior to the Brexit referendum, Merkel had unilaterally triggered a tsunami of uncontrolled immigration of Arabs, and later Africans, into Europe by publicly declaring that Germany would take in asylum seekers "with no upper limit". In the following months, between Merkel's opening of the borders and the Brexit referendum, she - as well as pro-migration forces within the EU institutions - tried to blackmail the other EU members, and the migration-sceptic Eastern Europeans in particular, into taking in quotas of these asylum seekers that she/they had let in. This was of course fuel to the fear inside the UK that the EU would eventually seek to undermine British sovereignty and even tell them which people to accept as their new neighbors and fellow countrymen. It was the perfect storm that reinforced all pre-existing anti-migration, anti-German and anti-EU resentment and, essentially, was the spark that got Brexit over the finish line. Without Merkel's antics, the referendum probably flips and ends up 52/48 or so in favor of Remain.
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Regarding the impact of Brexit, the picture is really murky. Since the impact of Brexit and the covid crisis (as well as the lingering supply chain and energy price issues triggered by the covid lockdowns) coincide, the British government and the Leavers can blame all the hiccups on that while the opposition and the Remainers can blame everything on Brexit. Imho, it will take time for the dust to settle. We need to wait for 1-2 more years before we can really disentangle these effects and tell which developments are permanent/temporary or caused by Brexit/global factors.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 29 2021 05:01pm