Quote (thundercock @ 22 Jul 2020 02:45)
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. That the GOP won't obstruct if they lose both houses and the presidency because of political pressure?
My point is that the GOP will react to voters equipping Biden with a strong mandate or strongly rejecting the GOP, and they will react to multi-cycle trends in the election results.
In 2012, the GOP had been doing generally well in the previous cycles, they kept doing well on the state level and effectively fought Democrats to a draw in the House and Senate. The only thing that really went wrong for them was the presidential race itself, which was easily explained by Obama being a much better candidate and campaigner than Romney, rather than voters giving Obama a strong mandate. Them continuing to do well in the following election cycles from 2013 to 2015 confirms this interpretation.
By contrast, if the GOP loses the presidential race and the House decidedly in 2020, after having been spanked in almost every race from 2017 to 2019 too, that's sending a strong signal of rejection by the voters. The GOP leadership arent idiots, they know that their party holds a huge structural advantage in the Senate given the current political geography. So in the scenario I described, their party will have been spanked nonstop for four consecutive years, having lost the House in the process and having seen their president being denied a second term, only holding on to the Senate because it is massively tilted their way. I dont understand how anyone could think that they could get away with destructive obstructionism of even moderate and common-sense bills in such a cimate. Their strategists must know that this would not win them back the suburbs or state legislatures, that this approach would not make them competitive for the presidential level again.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 21 2020 07:08pm