Quote (dro94 @ 7 Jun 2020 12:30)

Agreed.

Mass protests where it's impossible to socially distance in the midst of a pandemic is just wrong. How many more people will die as a result?

It's also factually incorrect that we're on the back end of the pandemic considering antibody tests show only about 10% of the population have been infected.

Quote (excellence @ Jun 8 2020 08:52pm)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

oh is that so?

Quote (Thor123422 @ 9 Jun 2020 03:59)

Interesting.

Both good and bad. On one hand, it's good because it makes contact tracing a lot easier. Somebody doesn't get symptoms, then they're not spreading and can be ignored.

On the other hand, it means that our confirmed covid numbers are far more likely to be accurate, and only a small portion of the population is infected, meaning we can still have a shit load more get infected just about everywhere. I've been holding out for mass testing to reveal that >30% of the population has already been infected and gained immunity, and the actual lethality rate is much lower due to this. This really throws a wrench in that.

Quote (excellence @ Jun 8 2020 06:52pm)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

oh is that so?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 8 2020 07:18pm)

Various studies from various countries have all shown the dark figure to be about 5-10 times higher than the official number of infected. Taking the upper end of this range and applying it to the 2m cumulative cases in the U.S., this would indicate that not much more than 20m Americans have been infected yet, or ~6% of the population. So these hopes were actually already unrealistic before this new study came out. ;)

I wonder, however, if there is a difference between asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread. Like... what if those who remain asymptomatic are never all that infectious (because their immune system keeps the virus under control throughout the entire course of the disease) while those who eventually develop symptoms present a much greater risk of presymptomatic spread? In particular, I've read multiple times that the viral load in the throat of infected patients was highest around the day they first showed symptoms, or perhaps one day earlier. Imho, this scenario would much more easily explain what happened in March, when this thing got madly out of control real quick even though authorities and public health institutions tried their best to trace cases and chains of infection. The way things went down in March are imho hard to explain in a world where asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission both dont play a big role.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 8 2020 09:18pm)

Various studies from various countries have all shown the dark figure to be about 5-10 times higher than the official number of infected. Taking the upper end of this range and applying it to the 2m cumulative cases in the U.S., this would indicate that not much more than 20m Americans have been infected yet, or ~6% of the population. So these hopes were actually already unrealistic before this new study came out. ;)

I wonder, however, if there is a difference between asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread. Like... what if those who remain asymptomatic are never all that infectious (because their immune system keeps the virus under control throughout the entire course of the disease) while those who eventually develop symptoms present a much greater risk of presymptomatic spread? In particular, I've read multiple times that the viral load in the throat of infected patients was highest around the day they first showed symptoms, or perhaps one day earlier.

Imho, this scenario would much more easily explain what happened in March, when this thing got madly out of control real quick even though authorities and public health institutions tried their best to trace cases and chains of infection. The way things went down in March are imho hard to explain in a world where asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission both dont play a big role.

Quote (Thor123422 @ 9 Jun 2020 04:44)

I was just hoping. That would have been the best case scenario.

Quote

The only way it spreads internationally is with asymptomatic spread. If there isn't asymptomatic spread it is stopped at airports and with quarantines. This has some degree of spread either before symptoms or without symptoms. That's why SARS was stopped so easily and never became a pandemic, because you only were contagious if you were showing symptoms.