Just to reiterate one of my points. On the below:



Let's logically think about this.

If you are symptomatic two things can happen. You either go and get tested and are part of that 100k or you don't get tested. If you are not symptomatic, you either don't have it or the disease is just not showing itself.

What we know is of all the people that got tested worldwide approx 100k have it. Reality is however that the number of people who ACTUALLY have the virus are

=100,000 (who tested positive)+those who are symptomatic but deal with it on their own+ those who are asymptomatic

the current rate of mortality is being calculated by dividing deaths/the ones who tested positive

so 2 of the 3 denominators are being ignored in the calculation of this rate.

I already made this point yesterday a couple of pages ago. Note, however, that infected persons with asymptomatic progress can still infect others and contribute to the spread of the virus.

They can no doubt but the point is the death rate is lower if we understand how this is being calculated. I don't know what % of the total denominator are the other two unaccounted factors, i personally think those two are actually much larger than the one that's being accounted for. Like how many average adults go to the doctors for the flu or a cold? Covid symptoms are not that much different. Like everyone i know would do what i do, which is lay in my bed and cry to my wife to be my maid and bring me soup and tea for a few days instead of going to a doctor.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 8 2020 03:34pm

Useful twitter thread on switching from containment to mitigation:

https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1236393626760032257



This post was edited by IceMage on Mar 8 2020 03:39pm

Genomic epidemiology tracker:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?dmax=2020-01-27&dmin=2020-01-21

aka "ancestry"

/e (press RESET, then PLAY)

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Mar 8 2020 03:51pm

The Italian government is ridiculous. I'm so glad our government in Spain doesn't give a fuck about this bullshit virus and is not only not cancelling mass events, demonstrations, and celebrations, but encouraging people to go on with their lives as normal as long as they take precautions and are aware that there's a risk of becoming infected.

So far the only thing they've done is shut down several hundreds of centers for the elderly, since senior citizens are pretty much the only ones in risk of suffering serious consequences from the disease.

#SpainFirst

Yep. Cases are going up. But it's more damaging to halt the economy and cause mass panic.

There's the theory that the government, which has feminism as one of it's priorities, will begin restricting events now that the woman's day is over, but I hope not.

Did you just assume my geometric progression ?